Angola is consistently recasting itself as the place global energy investors, especially in oil and gas, turn to for long-term, lower-risk bets.
TotalEnergies reinforced this momentum this week by bringing its Begonia and Clov Phase 3 offshore developments into production. Together, the two projects are adding roughly 60 000 barrels per day to Angola’s output.
Begonia, a first-of-its-kind inter-block subsea tie-back, links five wells to the PAZFLOR FPSO about 150km offshore, while Clov Phase 3 ties four wells to the CLOV FPSO.
TotalEnergies has highlighted that these tie-backs provide low-emission, cost-efficient barrels, supporting Angola’s energy security while demonstrating that upstream investment in the country can be both responsible and commercially viable.
The simultaneous start-up of these projects underlines why investors are increasingly viewing Angola as a lower-risk, high-prospect frontier for oil and gas capital.
Over the next five years, Luanda is pitching roughly $70-billion (R1.1-trillion) of upstream projects to the market, a pipeline built on clearer licensing, targeted fiscal changes, and a string of first-oil milestones that together lower the tail risk that banks and majors usually fear.
That investor pivot comes at a moment when Angola’s broader economy is showing both resilience and constraint.
According to the African Development Bank, Angola recorded its strongest growth performance in five years in 2024, with real gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 4.4%, driven largely by non-oil activity, especially agriculture and fisheries.
Yet oil remains central, accounting for 28.9% of GDP and roughly 95% of exports, even as production continues its long-term decline from peaks seen in the 2000s.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Angola’s growth is projected to slow sharply to 1.9% in 2025 and be stagnant in 2026, largely due to lower oil production and moderate expansion in the non-oil sector.
That slowdown underscores the central tension shaping Angola’s energy strategy: the country must sustain hydrocarbon revenues while accelerating diversification fast enough to reduce vulnerability.
As of December 2025, Angola produced an average of 1.03-million barrels per day.
Projections by Oxford Economics show output could rise by 6.5% to 1.14-million barrels per day in 2026, generating an estimated $24.4-billion in oil revenue.
The International Energy Agency ranks Angola among Africa’s top 10 largest oil-producing countries, alongside Nigeria, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and others that anchor the continent’s energy supply.
Angola’s 27-year civil war
But Angola’s modern energy era grew out of chaos.
Independence from Portugal in 1975 was followed by a 27-year civil war that wrecked roads, ports, and institutions, even as offshore geology positioned the country to become one of Africa’s largest oil producers.
Hydrocarbons still account for roughly a quarter of GDP and about 60% of government revenue, making the sector both Angola’s greatest asset and its greatest exposure.
According to sector analysts, what changed was Angola’s investor offer.
That offer now includes predictable bid rounds, a regulator physically and functionally separated from the commercial concessionaire, and fiscal reforms that make marginal, aging, and technically challenging fields worth developing again.
According to NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, Angola’s approach reflects a more disciplined model of hydrocarbon development.
“Angola proves that ‘drill baby drill’ is not about reckless extraction; it is about responsible development,” Ayuk said.
“It is about using world-class technology, lowering emissions per barrel, monetising gas to power economies, and ensuring energy security for millions of people who still lack access.”
Angola, he argued, understands that “you cannot transition from energy poverty without first producing energy”, and that hydrocarbons, developed responsibly, remain central to Africa’s growth story.
That policy clarity has increasingly been written into law.
In November 2024, the government enacted Presidential Decree 8/24, an “incremental production” regime that cuts petroleum production tax and lowers petroleum income tax for qualifying association agreements.
The aim is to stimulate investment in aging fields and undeveloped areas, precisely where decline risks have historically deterred capital.
The effect has been tangible.
$5bn investment over four years
Azule Energy, the Eni–BP joint venture, told Reuters in September 2025 that it would invest about $5-billion in Angola over the next four to five years and drill roughly 18 wells as part of the programme.
Guido Brusco, Eni’s chief operating officer, framed it plainly: Angola’s regulatory overhaul was central to the decision to scale activity.
Policy clarity has arrived alongside real production.
Azule’s Agogo Integrated West Hub reached start-up in mid-2025, with its first oil on August 1 and its first cargo later that year, adding tens of thousands of barrels per day to Angola’s supply.
Chevron’s South N’dola platform achieved first oil in December 2025, just over two years after construction, leveraging existing Mafumeira processing infrastructure and creating more than 800 local jobs.
Independent operators are part of the story, too.
Oando assumed operatorship of Block KON-13 in the onshore Kwanza Basin in January 2025, while Corcel consolidated a majority interest in Block KON-16, completed a 326-kilometre 2D seismic survey, and plans a 2026 exploration well.
ReconAfrica has launched a multi-million-acre inland exploration programme with prospective resources estimated between 770-million and 1.1-billion barrels.
Together, these initiatives demonstrate Angola’s growing onshore exploration footprint alongside deepwater activity.
Financial architecture is evolving to match.
Deal deliberately engineered
The African Export-Import Bank closed a $1.75-billion syndicated receivables purchase facility for Sonangol in late January 2026 to stabilise operating cash flows and support capital expenditure plans.
Haytham Elmaayergi, Afreximbank’s executive vice-president, described the deal as deliberately engineered to crowd capital into strategic African sectors while easing conventional security constraints.
Analysts say the combination of reforms, deals, and execution explains why capital is being concentrated rather than withdrawn.
Ian Thom, Research Director at Wood Mackenzie, argues that “the blend of prospectivity and fiscals will play a major part in attracting investment”, adding that Angola is in a strong position in this regard.
The on-the-ground mechanics are increasingly visible.
Agogo’s FPSO was delivered, hooked up, and declared on-stream in mid-2025 with reduced-emissions designs and electrified topsides, converting sanctioned projects into flowing barrels faster than some alternatives.
The New Gas Consortium’s Soyo gas treatment plant entered commissioning with its first gas in November 2025, marking Angola’s first large non-associated gas processing facility.
That milestone expands domestic power potential and introduces new export optionality, reinforcing Angola’s gas monetisation agenda.
For investors, the sequencing matters.
Mature deepwater fields
A declared final investment decision followed by construction, first oil, and first cargo provides a clear cash-flow path underwritten by contracts and logistics.
That in turn supports bankable commodity-linked facilities rather than speculative off-balance financing.
However, there are real limits to the optimism.
Much of Angola’s production still comes from mature deepwater fields developed in the 2000s and 2010s, meaning sustaining output above one million barrels per day will require both new offshore projects and successful onshore replacement.
TotalEnergies’ Kaminho project in the Kwanza Basin reached FID in 2024 and is slated for start-up in 2028, but projects of that scale take years of execution and remain sensitive to cost inflation and commodity swings.
Angola is also treating human capital as infrastructure.
A 2025 partnership between MIT, ISPTEC, and Sonangol aims to embed applied research and engineering training inside Angolan institutions rather than exporting expertise abroad.
The macro backdrop makes that long-term strategy urgent.
According to the IMF, inflation remains elevated but is easing, while near-term debt service pressures remain significant, requiring fiscal discipline even as Angola funds development and protects vulnerable groups.
“If Luanda sustains that cadence, enforces local-content commitments, and manages hydrocarbon revenues prudently, Angola could convert natural wealth into durable, governance-backed capital attraction,” according to Ayuk.
