I remain optimistic about South Africa’s agricultural production in 2026. The weather outlook suggests a rainy summer, which should support crop growth and grazing veld.
Many international organisations, such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, have long indicated that we are at a high likelihood of La Niña-induced rains continuing through to February 2026.
This period covers the planting through to the flowering of the summer crop, which are stages that require more moisture for development. After the flowering period, warmer, sunnier weather typically helps with crop maturation.
On December 19, the South African Weather Service joined the choir, indicating that.
“Predictions indicate we are moving towards a weak La Niña event during the summer. Most predictions indicate a short, weak La Niña event during mid- and late summer.
The usual effect of La Niña on South Africa is for an increased likelihood to receive above-normal rainfall over the northeastern parts of the country during summer.”
A weak La Niña is even more favourable because it suggests we may not be overwhelmed by floods but will receive regular rainfall.
In the 2024-25 summer crop season, we were leaving behind a weak La Niña. The season helped us achieve ample yields of grains, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables.
For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production is at 20.2 million tonnes, up by 30% from the previous year.
This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.
Second-largest harvest
In the case of maize, we have the second-largest harvest on record, and in soybeans, the largest on record.
The various fruits and vegetables also achieved excellent harvests, as reflected in healthy export volumes.
We may be heading into another year of favourable production, as this one has been. And I will admit, it has been difficult to get through fieldwork in the various areas of the country. I have heard many farmers complaining about the excessively wet fields.
But they have also worked diligently to take advantage of quiet periods and push fieldwork during those moments.
I remain hopeful that we may be able to get through the planned planting area, even if outside the typical planting window.
Remember, even the 2024-25 season, which delivered ample grains and oilseeds, was largely outside the typical planting window. In fact, the season was roughly a month and a half late.
As planting of grains and oilseeds is underway, farmers are optimistic and aiming to plant 4.5 million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season. The planting could continue through to early January 2026.
Hopefully, however, this time around it won’t rain through to April as it did this year. The longer rainy window does cause crop quality issues.
Agricultural conditions look positive
I take comfort in knowing it’s a weak La Niña and that the weather forecasters expect the rains to continue through to February 2026, then slow thereafter.
In essence, the favourable weather prospects may help ensure that South Africa gets an even bigger grains and oilseeds harvest than the 20.2 million tonnes in the 2024-25 production season (already up 30% from the previous year).
The gains won’t be limited to grains but will also include fruits, vegetables, and the grazing veld.
This means that, on the production side, agricultural conditions in South Africa look positive, and the focus must be on addressing the animal diseases that pose a challenge to cattle farmers, particularly foot-and-mouth disease.
The success of vaccination, combined with these favourable rains, will ensure that agriculture remains on a positive growth path and that food prices continue to moderate.
