Sasol has revised its fuel sales forecast upward for the 2026 financial year after stronger-than-expected performance at National Petroleum Refineries of SA (Natref), the country’s only inland crude oil refinery.
Sasol Oil and Total SA jointly own the refinery.
Sasol now expects fuel sales volumes to be 5% to 10% higher than the 2025 financial year, compared with its earlier forecast of growth of between 0% and 3%.
According to the business performance metrics for the six months to December 31, 2025, the upgrade was mainly driven by improved operational performance at Natref, which supported higher production and better placement of fuel in higher-margin markets.
However, gas production volumes are now expected to be up to 5% lower than in the 2025 financial year. Sasol had anticipated gas volumes to increase by between 0% and 10%.
The forecast downward revision reflects delays in the production sharing agreement (PSA) project and the Central Térmica de Temane power project, as well as softer demand for gas from both internal operations and external customers.
“Looking ahead, the operating environment is expected to remain challenging, given heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving global trade dynamics, and continued softness in certain end markets impacting financial performance.
“We remain focused on what is within our control and responding proactively to changes in the operating environment,” reads the report.
Improved coal quality and higher production at Secunda Operations supported fuel output during the period.
The destoning plant in South Africa reached beneficial operation in December 2025; this allowed previously closed low-quality mining sections to return to full operation.
Delays weight on near-term gas outlook
Together with improved gasifier and equipment availability, these changes lifted production levels during the quarter.
Sasol noted that stronger operations at both Secunda and Natref underpinned higher fuel sales volumes and supported its strategy of shifting product into higher-margin channels.
But gas supply from Mozambique declined compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to the expected natural decline of the petroleum production agreement.
While improvements are expected in the second half of the 2026 financial year as the PSA ramps up, current delays have weighed on the near-term gas outlook.
Chemical operations faced continued pressure from weak market conditions across all regions.
Sasol reported lower revenue in its chemicals businesses, citing softer pricing and volumes, particularly in the US and in palm kernel oil-related products.
In the international chemicals segment, an extended outage at the Louisiana Integrated Polyethylene cracker also affected performance, although the plant was successfully restarted at the end of December 2025.
“The plant was successfully restarted at the end of December 2025. Our self-help measures continued to deliver benefits, which led to lower costs and capital expenditure. We continue to hedge our exposure to oil prices and currency movements.
“Given the prevailing market conditions, a broader range of hedging instruments has been utilised to maintain downside protection,” reads the report.
