A new report shows that the spending patterns have changed such that consumers are spending more on gambling than on groceries.
This was revealed by the 2026 economic outlook presented at Standard Bank’s head offices in Rosebank on Tuesday by the bank’s chief economist, Goolam Ballim.
Painting a worrying picture, Ballim stated that consumer spending showed a growing shift towards gambling. In 2025, spending on gambling reduced what many low- and middle-income consumers spent in shops and other retail sectors.
Gamblers blow over R10k
More than 40% of gamblers are spending less than R500, while more than 20% are spending between R500 and R2, 350. Higher-rated gamblers are spending between R2, 350 and R10, 150, while the highest-rated gamblers are spending more than R10, 150.
Ballim expressed concern that the consumer expenditure on gambling was showing strong signs of addiction.
“Gambling spend cannabilised other retail spending in 2025,” he said.
Ballim also touched on the South African economy, saying it could enter one of its strongest periods in a decade. This as GDP growth is expected to accelerate over the year.
He said the country was moving beyond a period of stabilisation towards renewed growth momentum. This as household spending and investment gather pace.
With households accounting for about two-thirds of the economy, stronger consumer finances are likely to play a central role in lifting growth. Increased spending is expected to encourage fixed investment. And it is forecast to recover this year after contracting over the past two years.
GDP growth set to rise
“For the moment, at least for the next 12 months, GDP growth is likely to accelerate, underpinned by increasingly more lively household spending and fixed investment,” said Ballim.
He noted that employment is also edging higher compared with the period before the Covid-19 outbreak. Employment has surpassed pre-Covid-19 highs by about 1 million jobs. And income prospects are therefore improving.
Ballim highlighted that the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) increased by 38% in 2025. This shows that South Africa outpaced most markets.
Ballim also noted the stronger rand. It broke below R16 between the end of January and beginning of February for the first time since 2022. He said the rand is trading at a fair value of between R16 and R16.50.
“The rand too, even though when it is strong, it tends to dent exports, will remain a net positive.
“Overall it will temper inflation and create easier financial conditions. We also think that the rand will remain fairly steady at around current levels. Which we consider to be fair value,” said Ballim.
Policy, rule of law boost investment
He added that long-term prosperity would ultimately depend on strong institutions and policy certainty, particularly the rule of law, which supports confidence, investment and job creation.
“South Africa enjoyed numerous milestones in 2025, embracing the macroeconomic, socio-political, and even the sporting world — and it signalled that when systems work, South Africans can execute successfully.
“2026 is probably going to be a year that represents the best potential with regard to the macroeconomic backdrop in a decade. South Africa’s economic growth is likely to garner momentum, shifting from the stabilisation of the last few years,” said Ballim.
