Limpopo and Eastern Cape, the two provinces where the ANC enjoys the biggest electoral support, are due for their provincial conferences in mid-2026.
But with political talk gaining momentum that no ANC province will be allowed to have a conference before the local government elections, this creates new problems for the party of Oliver Tambo.
The reigning ANC provincial executive committees (PECs) in both provinces are in very bad shape.
It is an open secret that the political warfare by ANC leaders in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape has reached a point of no return.
Early conference the only option
As things appear, only an early conference to give leaders a new mandate can bring back sanity.
ANC Limpopo PEC has already asked for one. And this scribe fully agrees and adds that the Eastern Cape must have one too.
That is if the ANC is to have any real chance of maintaining or strengthening its strong bases in these rural provinces.
In Limpopo, over the past few weeks, there has been a propaganda war on steroids between provincial chairpersonship hopefuls — Premier Phophi Ramathuba and Polokwane Municipality executive mayor, John Mpe.
This toxic political environment was to be expected after the upward demotion of incumbent provincial chairperson Stan Mathabatha, who is now a Deputy Minister of Land Affairs and Rural Development.
Leadership vacuum
With Mathabatha now a national player for all intents and purposes, the leadership vacuum has created a scramble for dominance between Ramathuba and Mpe.
What has worsened the situation is that both warring leaders have a solid relationship with provincial secretary Reuben Madadzhe, who cannot be seen to take a side. Hence, choosing to just watch them finish each other off.
Those who care to pay attention will see the heightened mudslinging against prominent leaders of the ANC in Limpopo.
There were allegations about Mpe and tenders and Zimbabweans, as well as other things in his municipality. And then there was social media talk of graft against Ramathuba and her ally, provincial deputy chair and Cogta MEC Basikopo Makamu.
It is as clear as daylight that Ramathuba and Mpe are engaged in an open warfare for the soul of the ANC in that province and ultimately the premiership.
Eastern Cape cold war
In the Eastern Cape, it is still at the Cold War stage between provincial chair and Premier Oscar Mabuyane and provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi.
Those close to the developments have whispered that the two are no longer on speaking terms.
It has also become a very rare occurrence to see the two at the same ANC event, with regional conferences in that province under way.
Mabuyane is vying for a third term. Ngcukayitobi allegedly leads a new group that wants to take over.
The ANC NEC has not looked at the possibility of provincial conferences being brought forward.
But with the ANC almost as good as done in urban provinces like Western Cape and Gauteng, as well as the rural but MKP-dominated KwaZulu-Natal, keeping order in Limpopo and Eastern Cape appears to be the only sensible thing to do.
Allowing those two provinces to collapse in the ongoing scuffle for control would be tantamount to an organisation that has accepted its fate as a dying organisation.
And if the wars in Limpopo and Eastern Cape are not nipped in the bud with early conferences to restore order, more chaos is likely to ensue post the local government elections, with new mayors also fancying themselves for positions at the provincial level.
No GNU guarantee
And because of ANC support decline at the national level, politicians hailing from these two provinces are likely to add to the stampede in their ancestral provinces in desperation to sustain their political careers.
With positions in the national executive now no longer a guarantee for ANC politicians during the government of national unity (GNU) multi-party arrangements, more and more who hail from Limpopo and Eastern Cape are likely to see their ancestral provinces as the only way out to keep their lifestyle.
At least there, the ANC still has an outright majority. And is expected to maintain it even in the 2029 national and provincial elections.
It remains to be seen if the ANC NEC will intervene and grant a special dispensation to these two key provinces for the greater good and survival of the party at large.
Failure to intervene decisively by the often-lacklustre NEC might drive the final nail into the ANC coffin. Only time will tell.
