The next ANC conference might be what seems like a million miles away, but it won’t be amiss to say the tussle for the presidency, which in effect is a continual war, is raging already. The lobbying for the job can only intensify going forward.
In this regard, SA witnessed what could be a misfired salvo in the battle for the soul of the ANC and possibly the presidency of the country.
The once dominant party of liberation that at some point boasted support that breached even the two-thirds mark under Thabo Mbeki has lost that aura of invincibility at the polls.
We all know what a bad hand the May 29, 2004, elections dealt the ANC, which is now sitting with a mere 40% or thereabouts share of the vote.
It left them having to cut deals to hang onto much-diminished power. It had to find common ground and cause to sit, however uncomfortably, with its natural enemy, the DA, in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government of national unity (GNU).
And, therein lies the rub as far as the succession battle in the ANC goes, methinks.
The man meant to take the blow of the misfired salvo, Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi, has been at pains along with the now insignificant alliance partners, to warn the party of what it should keep in mind all the while it sups with the devil.
Fikile Mbalula, the man at the de facto helm of Luthuli House by being the secretary-general, has to sell and stand by the decision taken by the national executive committee of the ANC to go into coalition with the DA – a near-treasonable move in the eyes of those who fancy themselves as the real custodians of the so-called national democratic revolution.
Mbalula cannot go against the flow as he is hindered by the incumbency of his office, but the man at whom he tried to take what may in hindsight now seem to be an ill-considered potshot, Lesufi, has no such constraint and can voice his concerns in the democratic party of esteemed leaders such as Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo, Chris Hani and many iconic others.
Lesufi’s stance has set him, again in my eyes, firmly as the poster boy of the not-so-lunatic fringe in the ANC opposed to the GNU project.
It is early days yet for the GNU, and the jury is still very much out on its success or failure. But it’s a long game being played out here.
Maybe William Gumede, the author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC, might have fodder for an update as the next generation of leaders of the Glorious Movement angle for the top job with Mbalula sitting in the blue corner and Lesufi in the red one.
Even though Lesufi has recently declared that he has no such ambitions, many will recall how one Jacob Zuma stunned the nation by declaring out of the blue his lack of interest in the job held by Thabo Mbeki.
What happened next, culminating in Polokwane 2007 is now the stuff of contemporary history.
Mbalula wrote to Lesufi and summoned him to come and explain himself to the ANC’s top seven leaders following a series of public pronouncements of his distaste for the toenadering with the DA.
The ever-tweeting madam (or whatever that is called now that Twitter is now known as X) down by the Cape is doing ANC proponents of the GNU no good, giving Lesufi leverage.
Social media users have been eager to share what purportedly happened in the meeting with the Top 7, where Mbalula was supposed to cut to size an obvious opponent for the top job.
Word is that the meeting didn’t have the desired effect and Lesufi walked away scot-free, no doubt emboldening him.
Why not? He is sitting pretty governing Gauteng with his minority government, practically demonstrating what can be done without “selling out” to the old enemy.
The ANC might have lost support in the elections, but it remains the biggest party by the proverbial mile and has a say at least on whom it shall govern with it.
Conventional wisdom would be that it will still be a significant electoral factor well into the foreseeable future and therefore worth fighting for.
The question remains what direction the party would take in this age of coalitions, which could well be the order of the day for some time.
What is emerging is a two-horse race, with the traditional next man for the job seemingly out of the equation if the health concerns around Deputy President Paul Mashatile are anything to go by.
Mbalula jumped the gun with the latest pot-shot at Lesufi, which, by the way, is not the first.
He did himself little favour and appeared rather petty for taking Lesufi to task a few months ago for wearing a T-shirt that appealed to whoever “to not kill Chris Hani again”.
No prizes for guessing what he meant.
Given what went down this past week, it is 2-0 to Lesufi but it’s not over by the long shot.
• Masipa is associate editor
