With the bully in the White House in Washington threatening South Africa with fire and brimstone, there are many who suggest that we should look to China or the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and SA)countries for our economic survival.
Indeed, some of us believe that unless we change our political orientation, ditch our relationship with the Brics, stop our solidarity with the Palestinians, grovel for acceptance by the Americans and lick Donald Trump’s boots, the worst punishment is still to come our way.
It would most likely be in the form of inflicting economic pain, but a military invasion is not out of the question, especially because we are strategically important in terms of both mineral endowment and geographical location.
If the US can threaten to take Greenland from Denmark by force or annex Canada, how difficult would it be to take a similar hostile action against South
Africa?
Of course, it is completely unpalatable for us to abandon our national sovereignty in order to appease the completely irrational Trump. But we should also not poke a bear in the eye because we are not in a position to confront Americans either economically or militarily. However, we can indeed box smart.
It is important to note that political alignments do not always match economic realities. China is our political, economic and diplomatic friend, but we are at a huge disadvantage in trade relations. China is a manufacturing giant that is hungry for our minerals and other raw materials compared to South Africa, which is a manufacturing midget.
Just in January 2025, we imported goods worth R38-billion from China but exported materials valued at only R17-billion. Theirs consisted of finished manufactured merchandise, while ours consisted almost completely of raw materials. So, China wouldn’t be helpful to us in terms of building our manufacturing capacity and capabilities, and seemingly, our trade deficit with them is likely to persist for a very long time.
Our trade with Russia is negligible and not worth talking about, even though our political and diplomatic ties are good.
Our trade with the European Union is in the region of €50-billion and is mainly in our favour.
As we talk about the need to diversify our trade links in the face of a dramatically changed geopolitical environment, our pitiful situation in intra-African trade becomes worryingly clear. South Africa’s trade with the continent amounts to only 17% of its total volume.
Many observers have long decried this state of affairs and urged Africa to do all it can to trade more with itself.
The African Continental Free Trade Area, AfCFTA, was meant to cure this embarrassing and harmful mischief. However, progress has been painfully slow, considering the plight that our continent finds itself in. Trump’s hostile attitude towards the continent, and South Africa in particular, means we should give this African economic integration the urgency it deserves.
South Africa, as the most advanced economy on the continent, should lead the charge. This does not mean South Africa should just look for markets for its products, but play a meaningful role in creating industries and promoting manufacturing on the continent.
For us to do that, requires that we look hard at ourselves. We should eschew mediocrity and embrace merit, skill and performance at every level of our lives.
We cannot spearhead African economic advancement if we won’t even attend to potholes on our roads, sewage in our streets, maintain and run efficient railway systems, provide adequate clean water to our communities, allow crime to overwhelm us, fail to manage migration, etc.
Taking into account the low base we would start from in increasing intra-African trade, we should accept that it will be a long slog. But we have to do it because our collective economic survival rests in our continent.
