Indications are that it will be down to the wire in KwaZulu-Natal as political parties aim for the ANC’s scalp in the highly contested general elections billed for Wednesday.
In the 2019 elections, the governing party emerged victorious with a slim majority, receiving just over 54% of the votes.
For 2024, the stakes are even higher, with the ANC facing the possibility of losing the elections in one of its biggest provinces and the country’s second-biggest economy after Gauteng.
The province also has the second-biggest number of registered voters, at close to 6-million.
In the last provincial and national elections, the ANC amassed about 2-million votes in KwaZulu-Natal, which helped the party keep its majority status nationally.
The uMkhonto weSizwe Party’s (MKP) splinter grouping has been causing all the waves, with recent polls putting the former president Jacob Zuma-led party at 24%, while the ANC is predicted to lose a huge chunk of its votes and settle at just under 23%.
The emergence of the MKP did not only cause an upset for the ANC but also for the IFP and the EFF, with polls pointing to the MKP eating into these parties’ key constituencies.
DA eyes 25% share of votes
On the other hand, the DA, which has focused most of its election campaign in KwaZulu-Natal, is likely to receive slightly over 18%, according to various polls.
Although most political parties have chosen to keep their cards close to their chests, the DA says that it wants 25% of votes in the province.
It believes that will bring it closer to the dream of being part of the government in the province.
“We want at least 25% in KZN, and we’re confident that we can achieve that. Our biggest goal is to be part of the KZN government,” said Dean Macpherson, the DA chairperson in KwaZulu-Natal.
The party also banks on the multiparty charter, among which key partners are the IFP.
The IFP has been on an upward trajectory since the 2021 municipal elections, snatching key councils from the ANC. It is currently the official opposition in the provincial legislature.
On the other hand, the ANC wants to do it alone.
“We are not going into elections with the aim of forming coalitions. We are in it to win it,” said ANC provincial secretary-general Bheki Mtolo.
The IFP said it has worked extensively to win support and regain the majority it lost to its fierce rival, the ANC, in 2004.
IFP message resonates with voters
“We have put in the work. Judging by our recent by-elections and back-to-back victories,” said Thami Ntuli, the IFP chairperson in KwaZulu-Natal, who is also the premier candidate.
“We believe that the people resonate with the message we have been communicating. But should anything happen, we are prepared to work with like-minded parties who will prioritise service delivery.”
Other parties that are likely to have a say in how the provincial government is formed include the EFF and ActionSA, which is contesting its maiden general elections.
Meanwhile, Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, a political analyst and the Nelson Mandela University director of the Centre for the Advancement of Non-Racism and Democracy, explained that a coalition government at provincial and national levels is possible.
“This view is given substance by the fact that both the ANC as the governing party and the DA as the official opposition have been on a decline,” said Mngomezulu.
Mngomezulu also noted that parties such as the IFP, EFF, and Freedom Front Plus have been on an upward trajectory.
