Cancers, particularly breast, cervical, prostate, lung, haematological and paediatric cancers are on the rise in South Africa and are expected to continue tormenting the nation over the next decade.
A new study by actuaries and public health experts from the University of Cape Town, and Emma Finestone and Jodi Wishnia from the University of the Witwatersrand, estimates that by 2030 there will be 121 000 incidences of cancer compared to 62 000 in 2019.
“This is a result of increases in the age-specific incidence rate of cancer, as well as the growth and ageing of the population,” said Finestone, adding that the country should prioritise planning for cancer services.
“In South Africa, infection-related cancers, such as cervical cancer and Kaposi sarcoma, are among the most commonly diagnosed cancers. This is consistent with our model forecasts, which identify cervical cancer as one of the three cancers with the highest incidence.
“Approximately one-third of these cancers occurs in people living with HIV [PLWHIV]. Given the reduction in risk of developing these cancers and the improved treatment outcomes that are associated with successful antiretroviral therapy in PLWHIV, ensuring that PLWHIV receive and adhere to treatment is a cost-effective way to reduce the incidence of HIV-related cancers while simultaneously preventing other HIV and Aids-related morbidity.”
The research suggests that at least one in every nine people will develop cancer in their lifetime. It also found that there will be at least 121 000 incidents of cancer in 2030 compared with the 62 000 incidents in 2019.
The high cases are expected to be in the public sector as a large number of people depend on it. “This requires the availability of relevant, recent and reliable data. At present, such data are not publicly available. This highlights the need for comprehensive incidence and cost data across both the public and private sectors,” added Finestone.
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