The ANC is due to take a decision in the first NEC meeting of 2025 in what was the biggest elephant in the room since May 29 elections – what to do with the provincial executive committees (PECs) of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
The question arose from the dismal performances in the polls by both provinces of the former liberation movement.
Of course, it would be absurd to lay the blame for the embarrassing results squarely at the doorstep of the embattled PECs when the NECs must shoulder part of the blame.
But then again, the buck of what happens in ANC provinces stops with PEC structures in all provinces. Hence the questions of what to do with Gauteng and KZN cannot be avoided.
But in deciding in this regard, the ANC national executive committee (NEC) must avoid a narrow analysis of where the entire party, because the ANC is a unitary party, is at this juncture in its political life.
Catastrophic
An emotional decision to disband simply to spite individual leaders of the Gauteng and KZN PECs would be catastrophic. And it might strike a deadly blow the ANC might never recover from.
The sober reality is that the ANC is wholistically limping, following its national 40% elections results in the May 29 polls. The first outcome shy of outright majority since the 1994 democratic breakthrough.
The fact of the matter is part of the reasons for the electoral drubbing the ANC suffered is factionalism that is now endemic in the party, which among other things manifests itself in higher structures purging, through disbandment, of their opponents in lower structures.
The ANC has an opportunity to put a stop to this with the decision it takes on Gauteng and KZN, and regain political legitimacy it has lost in society.
Or if short-sighted, the decision taken might be the tombstone to be placed above the ANC grave from which the party might never resurrect.
Internal rebellion
Disbanding Gauteng without clear reasons of why such a decision is the best and only option available will build internal rebellion within branches in the province, same goes for KZN.
In Gauteng it would be crippling, more so because there is already suspicion that the option to disband is tied to the ANC 2027 national conference interests in some quarters.
Worse still is the resultant degeneration, and open warfare would kill the ANC in the 2026 local government elections.
If there is any hope of recovery by the ANC, which is most unlikely, internal unity is the only glue to keep things together.
These provinces are strategic numerically in elections for many reasons, and sole consequence the ANC is now a 40% party or rural party if you like, was because of bleeding support in these two provinces.
In KZN, the MKP wave is moving like a tsunami and managed to almost bury a relatively united ANC in that province in the May 29 elections.
Municipalities at stake
With disbandment and the divisions that would follow such a reckless decision, the ANC might have to kiss all municipalities in the province goodbye come 2026.
Same would have to be the case in Gauteng, where ANC already lost its outright majority in all metro municipalities of the economic hub province since 2016 and failed to recover in 2021 with solid unity.
Even those accused of 2027 interests in their push for disbandment would be left fighting for carcass in that national conference, which would be frankly clownish without power in any municipality in Gauteng and KZN.
And besides, history teaches us that where there is disbandment, recovering to former glory is mission impossible.
A case in point is the senseless disbandment of the ANC Youth League so-called “Economic Freedom in Our Lifetime” 2011 national leadership which placed the once vibrant young lions in a permanent state of decay.
That disbanded ANCYL 2011 grouping is now an entirely independent political party in the form of the EFF, an opponent of the ANC.
ANCYL casualties
And the current ANCYL is the shadow of its former self and a puppet of senior leadership factions. A far cry from the glorious, militant and difficult-to-capture Youth League of yesteryear.
Such a fall from grace was birthed by misguided disbandment of elected people chosen by branches comprised of sane adults.
One of the options available would be convening special provincial congresses in Gauteng and KZN, where branches themselves will decide the fate of the provincial leaders they elected in 2022.
If the branches decide that the current cohort of these PECs are failing and cannot lead them further, then so be it. But such decision taken by a couple of dozens of people convening quarterly at Birchwood Hotel also known as the NEC, would result in unavoidable rebellion by branches, and justifiably so.
Senior leaders option
Another option would be to reinforce the GP and KZN PECs with seasoned senior leaders, currently not belonging to any structure and without future political ambitions for guidance.
But this route too has dire consequences because elected leadership is unlikely to take instructions from unelected comrades, regardless of their stature and profile. It just does not happen.
The ANC electoral nosedive is deeper and more complex than just Gauteng and KZN PECs. The facts are that the electorate of both provinces are extremely different to those of other provinces, and it is highly doubtful that any of the NEC leaders would have achieved better results had they been leading at provincial level of these two provinces.
