South Africa’s government of national unity (GNU) teeters on the brink of collapse over a contentious 0.5% VAT hike proposal. And senior ANC leaders are already engaged in urgent number-crunching to chart possible scenarios going forward.
The deadlock, which has paralysed budget processes and exposed deep fissures within the multi-party coalition, has prompted the ANC to re-evaluate its reliance on the DA while eyeing alternative alliances to secure governance stability.
Behind closed doors, some in the ANC national working committee (NWC) and national executive committee (NEC) are calculating parliamentary arithmetic to determine whether the party can govern without the DA — or the EFF and MK Party.
The numbers game: a DA-less majority
Central to discussions in ANC circles is the realisation that, along with its current GNU partners — excluding the DA — the party commands 201 seats in the 400-member National Assembly.
This figure, senior leaders argue, provides a “simple majority” sufficient to pass legislation and budgets without relying on the DA, EFF, or MKP.
“The reality is that the ANC does not have to work with either the DA, MK, or EFF. Our numbers with the rest of the parties in the GNU without the DA give us a simple majority as things stand,” a senior ANC leader revealed.
The calculus hinges on the ANC’s 159 seats combined with smaller parties like the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Patriotic Alliance (PA), Good Party, and others. Together, these groups form a bloc of 201 MPs, marginally above the 200-seat threshold required for a majority.
Some within the ANC propose further bolstering this coalition by courting ActionSA, which holds six seats.
“ActionSA would take us to 207 MPs without the DA, which is quite a comfortable majority if you manage that arrangement well,” an NEC insider noted.
This strategy aims to sidestep the DA’s perceived “bullying” tactics while avoiding the risks of aligning with the EFF or MKP, both labelled as “erratic” and “unpredictable”.
Avoiding the EFF-MK Party option
This school of thought dismisses the notion of incorporating the EFF, or MK Party, in GNU, citing its destabilising potential. The EFF’s radical economic policies and the MKP’s loyalty to former President Jacob Zuma are considered incompatible with the ANC’s governance agenda.
Moreover, the personalities leading these parties — Julius Malema of the EFF and Zuma of the MK Party — are viewed as big egos.
“It is almost impossible to have Julius Malema, Jacob Zuma, and Helen Zille working together in an organised fashion, given their big egos and exaggerated sense of self-worth in their personalities. It would be a disaster,” an NEC member asserted.
The assessment underscores the ANC’s preference for smaller, ideologically flexible partners over populist rivals. ActionSA, despite its DA-aligned roots, is perceived as a pragmatic alternative. However, this strategy carries risks. ActionSA’s leader, Herman Mashaba, has been critical of the ANC, and his party’s inclusion could alienate other GNU partners.
Crisis talks over VAT impasse
The ANC’s number-crunching coincides with frantic efforts to salvage the GNU. Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula leads a high-powered delegation — including Nomvula Mokonyane, Gwede Mantashe, and budget negotiator Zuko Godlimpi — to emergency talks with GNU partners and the EFF.
The meetings aim to break the budget deadlock rooted in the DA’s opposition to the VAT increase. The DA argues the hike would disproportionately harm low-income households, while the ANC insists it is fiscally necessary.
Mbalula’s standard invitation letter framed the talks as a bid to “advance the interests of all South Africans”.
Yet the subtext was clear: the ANC is testing the waters for a DA-less coalition. The inclusion of the EFF in discussions, despite the ANC’s aversion to partnering with them, hints at a dual strategy — appearing open to dialogue while quietly solidifying fallback options.
Implications for the GNU’s future
While publicly committed to the GNU, senior ANC leaders are preparing contingencies should the DA exit. The VAT standoff has become a litmus test for the coalition’s viability, exposing the fragility of trust between the ANC and DA.
If the ANC proceeds without the DA, it would mark a dramatic shift in South Africa’s political landscape. A 201- or 207-seat coalition would grant the ANC legislative control but require meticulous management of diverse partners with competing priorities. Smaller parties, sensing leverage, may demand concessions, complicating policy coherence.
Conversely, expelling the DA risks energising opposing forces. While the ANC doubts the DA, EFF, and MKP could form a united front, their combined 199 seats — DA (87), EFF (39), MKP (58), and others — could mount significant resistance.
Yet ANC leaders remain confident that ideological and personal clashes among these parties would prevent cohesion.
