The warning signs of South Africa’s failing power system have been evident for many years, according to James Mackay, CEO of Energy Council of South Africa.
“Loadshedding is not just a product of poor maintenance but rather the first tangible evidence of not having a clear and robust national plan to transition our power sector from the most carbon intensive in the world to a modernised system with appropriate reform to ensure our power system is sustainable, affordable, and reliable.” Mackay told Sunday World.
His remarks follow Eskom’s announcement on Wednesday that stage-six loadshedding would be implemented indefinitely. The power utility said 11 power generating units have broken down since Tuesday morning.
It said the escalation of power cuts to the dreaded higher stage was due to severe capacity constraints, and noted that it will continue to manage the limited emergency generation reserves to supplement generation capacity.
Mackay said in the long run, it will take years to completely recover from loadshedding and return the economy to unconstrained growth.
“Loadshedding has been more detrimental to the economy than Covid-19, and at elevated levels we are seeing a breakdown in key societal services such as hospital care, sewerage treatment and job losses, which is of great concern.
“It is not possible to return Eskom to its former state. Climate change and clean technologies have fundamentally changed the rules of energy markets and what makes a sustainable and viable utility.
“If government and Eskom don’t take heed of this and plan for a sustainable energy transition, then this bout of loadshedding will be the first of many energy crisis to come for South Africa.”
He explained further: “Loadshedding at such elevated stages is so detrimental to our economy and society that we need to demand that the immediate recovery of Eskom fleet performance be the number-one priority of government.”
There are numerous outlines of good technical plans of what needs to be done, but little visibility of who will be held accountable, he added.
He remarked: “In addition to Eskom’s recovery, we need to accelerate market reform and private sector investment in renewable power generation.
“Rooftop solar photovoltaics is the cheapest and quickest form of energy with very significant system benefits, especially at early levels of penetration which is where we are.
“South Africa has great solar resources that are not limited to only the Northern Cape, we can monetise this as an economy by private sector rapidly building renewable generation.”
Stage 6 loadshedding will be implemented from 16:00 on Wednesday until further notice pic.twitter.com/8wLr5r1lNW
— Eskom Hld SOC Ltd (@Eskom_SA) January 11, 2023
In December, Sunday World wrote that there are fears that loadshedding in 2023 could move to unprecedented levels and cause even more disruption to the economy and the lives of ordinary South Africans.
The concerns stemmed from the failure of the power utility to ensure maximum generation capacity from its plants.
In addition, Eskom has run out of money to burn diesel; the use of poor-quality coal supply is affecting the power utility’s ability to produce power; and Koeberg nuclear power station’s 920MW unit 1 needs to go offline for maintenance and refuelling.
Energy analyst Ted Blom said at the time that Eskom was losing generation capacity due to its use of poor-quality coal.
“Eskom has not invested in its long-term coal supply since 2002. As a result, most of the existing coal mines are battling to supply the required coal because they have been unable to develop their mines,” Blom said.
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