President Cyril Ramaphosa announced he is worried that the US and Israel may seek a regime change in South Africa, especially since the country is leading a successful campaign against the genocide in Palestine.

Internationally, the US has orchestrated many regime changes – Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Lula of Brazil, and others. The Russian Federation is believed to have successfully interfered in the 2016 US election in the contest between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Regime change is the sport of the larger political and military powers of the world and is part of latter-day imperialism and neo-colonialism.

The racist white right wing, the broader Christian evangelical community, the DA and the racist Jewish segment of South Africa have long supported apartheid, here and in Israel. They are also responsible for the many concomitant atrocities since 1948. As a result, they are vehemently opposed to the ANC. The lobby has its own moral problems. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has removed all doubt about the
immorality that is going on in Palestine and the places under the control of the occupying forces of Israel.

Former US President Jimmy Carter long maintained that Israel practised apartheid, which was declared a crime against humanity around 1966. The theological heresy of apartheid was exposed in 1984 and yet many evangelicals continue to promote apartheid regardless of the theological orthodoxy rejecting apartheid as a heresy. Rather than stand on divine protection and blessing, Israel stands on heresy and superstition.

The regime change that is desired by this lobby would have many dimensions including excluding the ANC, EFF, PAC, Azapo and all left-wing parties from state power and promoting a right wing and neoliberal coalition such as the Charter or Moonshot Pact. That is a long shot.

Another reality is that the ANC has been losing support since 2004 from 69.69%. In the local government election of 2021, the ANC stood at 45%. That has been driven by clear poor performance in running the state services: loadshedding, failing municipalities, impure drinking water, damaged transport systems, uncontrolled crime and corruption.

The nail in that coffin is the emergence of Umkhonto we Sizwe registered political party represented by Jacob Zuma, among others. That can easily take away 10% of the national vote, mainly from the ANC.

That says regime change is on its way regardless of the US and Israel lobby. Zuma himself cannot rescue the ANC. Other forces on the left will start to emerge as leaders of the black majority and the political left between 2024 and 2029.

What could be a shock and another version of a pro-West and pro-Israel regime change could be the ANC of Cyril Ramaphosa partnering with the DA. That will take South Africa into fresh intellectual and ideological confusion.

Nevertheless, South Africans should always be vigilant to maintain the creditable electoral system integrity that is acknowledged worldwide.

The integrity of that system relies on proper and robust risk management, which always must be supplemented with crime intelligence, military intelligence and national intelligence services including full-on cyber security services.

The IEC and all the political parties have a duty to alert each other to emerging risks and implement credible mitigation strategies. The IEC published some of its safeguards that make sure that elections are not compromised.

These layers of security include:

• The voters’ roll, which only allows registered voters to vote – and only allows for a single registration per voter.
• The requirement for voters to produce a valid ID document.
• The scanning of ID documents prior to voting.
• The marking of a voter’s thumb with ink.
• The completion of a form containing the details of voters and the signing of a sworn declaration by voters where they vote at a voting station at which they are not registered.
• Party agents and observers monitor all aspects of the voting, counting and results capturing process.
• In-built system-based exception reports for which various tolerance levels have been set.

All in all, the winds of change of government have been blowing over South Africa since the 2009 election when the ANC took a long-term downward trend of losing votes at all levels. That is not bad for the nation, although it may mean some ANC politicians and entrepreneurs may have to find new political homes and new sources of income.

• Swana is a political analyst, an academic and a member of the 70s Group
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