A presentation prepared for the SACP on an ambitious initiative called Vision 2035 aimed at achieving full employment in South Africa warns that the ANC-DA-led coalition government of national unity would likely stick to bad policies, worsening the economy.
The SACP also received a briefing on the mixed legacy of President Cyril Ramaphosa, who was “sold as popular, business-friendly, and liked by white people”.
This included three electoral setbacks, a sharp 22.5% drop in public investment, an 8.9% decline in total investment, and an increase of 3.2-million people. Consequently, the unemployment rate has ballooned from 36.3% to a staggering 42.6%.
The presentation, titled “ Vision 2035: A Plan to Achieve Full Employment in South Africa – Presentation to SACP”, and dated August 22 and not bearing the author’s details, suggests that the ANC and the DA, who both account for 87.5% of the coalition and therefore render other parties irrelevant traffic, “will double down on failed policies, which will be more contractionary”.
“From 2009, growth collapse and soaring unemployment coincided with a 25.72% plunge at the polls. If the starting point was the need to change policy, there would have been a different outcome,” according to the author, who also bemoaned that under Ramaphosa’s leadership, South Africa’s economy had been struggling, even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit.
Based on the presentation, the country’s economic story unfolded like this:
Nelson Mandela’s era from 1994 to 1998 saw annual GDP growth of 2.7%. Thabo Mbeki took the reins from 1999 to 2008, boosting growth to a robust 4%. Under Jacob Zuma from 2009 to 2017, the growth slowed to 1.9%. But it was during Ramaphosa’s leadership from 2018 to 2023 that the economic engine sputtered to a near halt with a mere 0.5% annual increase. The presentation highlights a particularly sluggish period from 2018 to 2023, where the economy crawled at just 0.5% annually, starkly lagging behind the 3.7% growth rate seen in comparable economies.
Persistent power outages and crumbling infrastructure exacerbated this economic drag. “Plant breakdowns started in 2018 – not 2007 – and collapse in Transnet operational performance started during the same year. During 2023, more energy was shed than during the 16 years from 2007 to 2022.”
By the year 2023, the presentation revealed, individual earnings had taken a nosedive from 2007 with projections hinting at gloomier days until 2026.
The author painted a bleak picture of South Africa, deeming it an “unviable society” mired in soaring unemployment, stark income inequality, and pervasive poverty. The
economic landscape looked especially grim, with half the populace drowning in debt, while an elite 10% basked in 86% of the nation’s wealth.
The presentation went on to unravel the mystery behind climbing unemployment rates:
Until 2035, about 700 000 fresh faces would flood the job market annually, thanks to a labour force expanding by 2.3% each year. Yet, the number of new jobs couldn’t keep pace, lagging due to sluggish job growth.
To address these challenges, the presentation put forward a trio of innovative solutions: boosting GDP growth, crafting industrial policies to generate employment opportunities, and expanding public job initiatives such as the Presidential Employment Stimulus, the Expanded Public Works Programme, and the Community Works Programme.
The presentation envisioned a national economic blueprint that would aim for full employment by 2035 and draw inspiration from the successful models of China, Malaysia and South Korea. Central to this vision was a job guarantee initiative, envisioning the establishment of a quasi-public entity, expertly governed with the involvement of civil society. This entity would integrate multiple public employment programmes, including the Jobs Fund, National Youth Service, public employment services, and Harambee, into a cohesive powerhouse of opportunity.
Right now, these initiatives boast a hefty budget of R17-billion, having paved the way for 1.8 million job opportunities and 900 000 full-time equivalent positions (FTE). The plan calls for axing the ineffective R7-billion per annum employment tax incentive and channelling those funds into a new organisation. The lofty aim? To conjure up as many as 5 million FTE jobs within five years.
The blueprint pushes for a developmental central bank laser-focused on boosting GDP, generating jobs and curbing inflation, all while keeping the exchange rate competitive to supercharge exports.
It was crucial, the presentation highlighted, to avoid imposing fresh taxes on the vast majority (99%) of South Africans. This approach was key to making the stimulus impactful and bolstering self-financing for a Universal Basic Income.
Conversely, the government was advised to swiftly start gathering particular taxes for the National Health Insurance Fund. Additionally, there was room to hike taxes on dormant wealth and those with high incomes.
SACP spokesperson Alex Mashilo said he was “unable to confirm who made the presentation and whether it was indeed presented. If its release was sanctioned, to the extent it was indeed presented, I would definitely confirm the details.”
