After suffering its worst electoral defeat yet in the May 29, 2024 national and provincial elections, the ANC will have 2025 to lick its wounds and recover, or die a slow, painful death.
But with the embarrassing heckling and hounding out of party second-in-command Paul Mashatile in Khayelitsha this week in the build-up to the Saturday anniversary rally, it appears that the party has a mountain to climb to regain legitimacy as the self-proclaimed “leader of society”.
Tumultuous year ahead
The oldest liberation movement in Africa has a tumultuous year ahead to navigate several notable events that will decide its fate.
Chiefly, the party is billed to hold its mid-term review national conference, also known as the national general council (NGC), where branches will take stock of how their national leaders have fared in implementing policies adopted at the 2022 national congress.
In this gathering, the national government of unity (GNU) route that the ANC national executive committee (NEC) took following the poor election results is bound to take centre stage.
Branches will grill the NEC members deeply on why they saw this as the best option available. This especially considering going to bed with the DA, a controversial decision that has alienated the ANC’s alliance partners SACP. So bad that the SACP has taken a radical decision to contest state power next year.
If the explanation that the NEC advances does not satisfy the branches at the NGC, the GNU decision might be reversed. Or worse still, a vote of no confidence on the NEC cannot be ruled out.
Pulling the trigger on Gauteng and KZN PECs
This year is also the one in which the party will make a final move on its most postponed decision to pull the trigger on the Gauteng and KZN provincial executive committees (PECs) for humiliating election results.
All indications are that the NEC will move to disband the two PECs in favour of provincial task teams. This is a decision that might be welcomed or rejected by branches,l; with dire consequences for the whole ANC.
But the NGC, Gauteng and KZN headache might be dwarfed by a series of regional conferences that are due to precede the majority of the ANC’s 52 regions that are due to elect new leaders.
These regional conferences are expected to be a blood-on-the-floor affair, for no cadres will be patient anymore to await their turn on the gravy train, seeing that the ship is sinking.
The jostling for regional executive committee (REC) positions will be worsened by the upcoming 2026 local government elections (LGE), where the ANC is guaranteed to shed more municipalities since the 2016 bleeding.
More internal fracturing to bleed party
Poor management of these regional conferences might lead to more internal fracturing and those on the losing slates dumping the ANC for the MKP, especially in KZN, Gauteng and Mpumalanga. And this this will be a blow that would be devastating to OR Tambo’s party on the even of 2026 LGE.
But the same regional conferences will be unlikely to be politically managed in a manner that benefits the organisation, for those in the running will be in it for self-preservation.
But no only that, some of those that will be contesting are joined at the hip with ambitions of others at provincial and national levels, conferences of which are coming up next year and 2027.
It thus does appear like the ANC will be gripped by its notorious self-destruction antics while its support base continues to be eroded.
MKP, EFF facing own internal battles
That is where the MKP and EFF come in, that is if they too can contain their own internal troubles that may well benefit the ANC by slowing down its inevitable demise.
The MKP’s teething problems continue to its second year of existence with chopping and changing of leaders at all spheres after the firing of their chief whip at the KZN legislature for serious allegations of embezzling party funds.
The internal bickering and scuffle for positions and quick money within the MKP have had founder Jacob Zuma admitting, in a leaked audio recording, that these ills have the potential to sink chances of growth for the party and attracting new members.
At Winnie Mandela House there is also a need for a change of gears after a challenging 2024 characterised by dipping electoral support and departure of high-profile members to the MKP.
The party has not handled these challenges with grace but following the election of new leadership for a fresh mandate last month, their first meeting will be telling as to whether they are turning the corner or sinking further into the abyss.
Rebuilding strategy for the EFF needed
The positive for the red berets brigade is that they have no forthcoming internal conference, but the new national leaders have an opportunity to pay full attention to developing a rebuilding strategy to set the party on a new path.
For the DA, 2025 will most likely sharpen their hidden internal contestation of the direction the party is taking.
After the DA joined the GNU, it has become obvious that there are two factions within the party, one led by Helen Zille and another by party leader John Steenhuisen, a development that should reach boiling point in 2025 and potentially divide the party.
The party joining the GNU has also cast a spotlight on the DA to shoulder part of the blame for things that do not work ahead of the 2026 LGE.
Monumental task for the DA
It remains to be seen how the DA will insulate itself from the angry electorate now that it is part and parcel of government at national level and two of South Africa’s most developed provinces.
Navigating these uncharted waters for the DA will be a monumental test that should push the party to the limit like never before.
It will further challenge the party on its consistent “where the DA governs, things work” slogan, which, if it continues with, other GNU partners, including the ANC, might benefit accidentally.
