Johannesburg- The ANC is in a desperate scramble to cling to power, with its own evidence showing that the governing party is “nowhere near” meeting its 2024 goals in delivering services to the population.
This with just two years left before national elections, the organisation faces the real prospect of being relegated to opposition benches for the first time since 1994.
A frank assessment of the party’s performance in government since the 2019 national and provincial elections by Minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele shows that failures in government have led to what the former deputy finance minister said are the “hard truths of a desperate moment”.
Gungubele addressed the ANC national executive committee lekgotla, which brought together the party’s top brass, senior civil servants and delegations from its allies, the SACP and Cosatu, last weekend.
In his presentation, Gungubele painted a grim picture of the country’s situation, conceding that the ANC government is “left with two years of the term” and “seem nowhere closer to meeting many of the 2024 targets”.
Among issues that Gungubele said were evidence that pointed to “hard truths of a desperate situation” are:
- The extreme levels of hunger, child malnutrition and poverty with too few people at work;
- The quality of education not being responsive to economic needs, especially of the youth;
- Inadequate infrastructure that is poorly located and/or under-maintained;
- Spatial divides that hobble inclusive development, with poverty deepening in rural areas, townships and informal settlements;
- The high failure rate of SMMEs and co-operatives; with barriers to doing business, including the payment of invoices;
- An economy that remains unsustainably resource-intensive with de-industrialisation, huge regulatory costs; and
- Serious fiscal constraints with a high growing debt ratio and a trade balance that remains stubbornly negative.
Gungubele further noted that the public health system remains curative and can neither meet demand for a healthy nation nor sustain quality. He also said morale in the public service is low and the quality of services uneven and often not citizen-focused.
“Corruption and crime levels are high, permeating public and private sectors and society in general; the abuse of women and children is high with gender-based violence taunting society at epidemic levels; the high carbon footprint threatens global competitiveness and thus sustainability of jobs if not of life itself,” he said.
Compared with many middle-income countries like it, South Africa’s economic growth rate and projections remain stymied with high investor uncertainty, while the country is heavily burdened with extreme levels of inequality and remains a divided society, Gungubele noted.
Gungubele’s honest take on the performance of the state comes as the governing party reels from a bruising elections campaign in November, during which the organisation dropped below 50% in terms of national support for the first time since the first democratic elections in 1994.
The party also lost control or remained out of power in five of the country’s eight rich metropolitan municipalities, including Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay.
With many parties starting preparations for the 2024 elections as early as this year, the ANC is in a mad rush to make up for its poor performance in the government.
Gungubele also warned that the gap between revenue and expenditure is expected to worsen if no drastic measures are taken.
“The Covid-19 pandemic erupted when South Africa was already in a weak fiscal position. In recent months, fiscal deterioration has accelerated. The main budget deficit and gross borrowing requirement will increase sharply.
“Without tough measures, a sovereign debt crisis will emerge,” he added.
According to the National Treasury’s medium-term budget policy statement, the country spends R303-billion annually to service debt, and this expenditure could
increase to as much as R1-trillion over the next three year.
Gungubele also detailed the areas the National Annual Strategic Plan would prioritise for the remainder of this administration’s term of office. These areas include:
- Stabilisation and recovery to reverse impact of pandemic and economic decline; and
- Acceleration of programmes and interventions “that are fit for purpose to deliver results towards tangible outcomes in 2022/23 and 2023/24.
The documents states that these include enhancing state capacity to deliver “better and faster”.
In her address to the lekgotla, Cosatu president Zingiswa Losi also warned that the ANC was at a crossroads and had a simple choice to make.
“We can continue as is, unemployment will pass 50%, state organs will collapse, the movement will die, it will be removed from office in 2024. Or we can make the hard choices, cleanse the movement of factionalism and criminals, deal decisively with corruption, fix the state, grow the economy and slash unemployment,” Losi said.
Analyst Duma Gqubule said the ANC seems to have given up and has not learnt lessons on its electoral decline and the July deadly riots.
“The government has not met any of its targets because it is implementing wrong economic policies. You can’t have a situation where the South African Reserve Bank is increasing interest rates yet you want economic recovery. The government is hell-bent on implementing economic policies that are anti-poor. This will further lead to the electoral decline of the ruling party in the 2024 elections. For many years, the economy hasn’t been performing well. It seems like the ANC has given up,” Gqubule said.
Political commentator Ralph Mathekga said the party was disingenuous and playing political gimmicks.
“For over 28 years, they have failed, they can’t suddenly achieve progress within a period of two years. This is common when parties lose support, they become very populist. For many years, the ANC has been in denial, but because the party recorded an electoral decline, they suddenly admit that they haven’t met any of their targets,” said Mathekga. Additional reporting by Sandile Motha
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