Cosatu has warned its members to prepare to be led by coalition governments in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Northern Cape after the 2024 general elections.
This is according to a confidential state of the organisation report prepared for the union federation’s congress next month.
The report, authored by the federation’s secretariat – led by Bheki Ntshalintshali – warns members to prepare for a government that does not include the ANC nationally or in major provinces.
“If the ANC is to win and retain power in the 2024 elections, nationally and provincially, then it needs to decisively deal with corruption, rebuild the state, end load-shedding, fix embattled SOEs (state-owned entities), spur the economy and reduce unemployment.
“Political fatigue has not hurt the ANC alone but the alliance as well, as we are seen to be part of the political establishment and responsible for the political and economic pain society is experiencing,” according to Cosatu’s secretariat.
The report also paints a bleak picture for the federation, which has lost over 400 000 members since 2015. The report further shows that the membership of the federation, which is in an alliance with the ANC and SACP, has declined from 1,9 million in 2015 to 1,5 million.
The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (Satawu), the National Union of Mineworkers and the Chemical, Energy, Paper, Printing, Wood and Allied Workers’ Union (Ceppwawu) were top on the list of unions that have been haemorrhaging members.
Satawu’s membership stood at over 218 000 in 2015 and has dropped to just over 59 000, representing a loss of more than 159 000 members. This is while the membership of the NUM dropped from 250 000 in 2015 to just over 157 000. Ceppwawu lost almost half of its membership, falling from 84 000 in 2015 to just over 47 000 this year. All three unions have been plagued by fierce leadership squabbles and allegations of corruption.
“While the reasons (for the decline in membership) may vary, it ranges from the economic meltdown and union rivalry. There is also an irony here that the membership figures given by the Department of Employment and Labour,
including those reflecting in the union’s record at their recent congresses, are sharply higher than what is submitted to Cosatu,” the document states.
“Some of the unions are open about the reasons for submitting lower figures, though this distorts the size of Cosatu’s membership,” it adds.
The November 2014 expulsion of the National Union of Metalworkers of SA, which had over 300 000 members at the time, and the Food and Allied Workers Union from Cosatu caused a “significant loss of finances” for the federation, the organisation conceded.
The federation’s finances remained stretched but were stable, the report notes.
On working with other federations, Cosatu said it had extended an olive branch to the South African Federation of Trade Unions (Saftu), in which Numsa is an affiliate.
However, the report states, Saftu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi’s “utterances and attacks” on Cosatu had not sat well with the ANC ally.
“We have attempted to avoid a direct response to their provocations. On a few occasions we have invited them to be part of the internal Decent Work Day.”
Cosatu president Zingiswa Losi is in pole position to retain her status when the federation elects its new leaders next month. However, there is speculation that her detractors have mounted a push-back.
This comes as it also emerged there was a strong lobby to oust Ntshalintshali. Should that happen, he would be the first Cosatu boss to be removed after serving one term since the formation of the federation in 1985.
Cosatu’s second deputy president, Louisa Thipe, is said to have indicated she will relinquish her position. The federation’s national treasurer, Freda Oosthuysen is expected to retain her position.
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