While the ANC-led National Treasury framed Thursday’s decision to scrap the value-added tax (VAT) hike as a compromise born out of “extensive consultations”, the true victor was Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA, which outflanked both the ANC and DA through strategic positioning and coalition bargaining.
The breaking news is a prime example of tactical maneuvering, coalition dynamics, and public perception management — all of which aim to reshape the political landscape.
And ActionSA passed with a distinction even when critics labelled them as fools for supporting the adoption of the national budget with a condition that the VAT hike be scrapped within 30 days.
ActionSA’s calculated gamble to conditionally support the ANC’s budget in exchange for scrapping the VAT hike proved masterful.
By leveraging its role as a smaller but pivotal party outside the government of national unity (GNU), ActionSA secured a quid pro quo: backing the fiscal framework while forcing the ANC to abandon the tax increase within 30 days.
This advantage now enables Mashaba’s party to claim credit for safeguarding the low-income households.
Godongwana’s weakened authority exposed
The party has framed itself as a defender of low-income households, leveraging the ANC’s vulnerability to public backlash over austerity.
With the same blow, ActionSA has also managed to undercut the DA.
While the DA opposed the VAT hike through legal challenges and rhetoric, ActionSA achieved a reversal within the system, positioning itself as a pragmatic alternative to the DA’s combative approach.
ActionSA has further expanded its influence by extracting concessions from the ANC, demonstrating its ability to shape policy despite its small parliamentary footprint — a critical step in building credibility ahead of future elections.
The ANC’s reversal reflects a survivalist calculus. Faced with crumbling public trust and coalition instability, the party has prioritised short-term stability over fiscal discipline.
But question marks remain on whether the party’s promised “reset” of the GNU was a bluff to pressure the DA into compliance.
When the DA refused, the ANC pivoted to secure support from ActionSA, Build One South Africa, and Rise Mzansi, avoiding a government collapse.
The Treasury’s abrupt U-turn — from defending the VAT hike in court to scrapping it days later — exposed Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s weakened authority.
Deflecting accountability
His assertion that the reversal was the result of “careful consideration of the recommendations of the parliamentary committees” is unfounded, given that he had just days earlier sought punitive legal costs against the DA and EFF.
The R75-billion revenue shortfall forces austerity measures, undermining the ANC’s ability to deliver services ahead of elections.
Yet by shifting blame to “constrained fiscal positions”, the ANC hopes to deflect accountability.
The DA’s rigid opposition to the VAT hike failed to translate into tangible gains, despite their bid to appear as champions of the low-income groups.
The DA’s court challenge may have forced the ANC into negotiations, but its demand for a constitutional amendment to strip the finance minister of VAT-setting power remains unresolved. They can defer any claim of victory until the conclusion of the protracted legal battle.
By voting against the budget and alienating ANC allies, the DA jeopardised its role in the GNU.
Despite leader John Steenhuisen’s claim that the coalition is “the best option for the country”, the DA’s influence is waning as ActionSA ascends.
Minister’s flip-flop damages ANC credibility
The ANC’s retreat highlights the political toxicity of regressive taxes in a nation with 30% unemployment.
The ANC salvaged short-term stability but at the cost of fiscal credibility, while the DA’s legalistic approach yielded limited returns.
Godongwana’s flip-flop damages ANC credibility, while Mashaba’s tactical wins bolster ActionSA’s image as a decisive force.
ActionSA’s pro-poor branding will also resonate more than the DA’s fiscal conservatism.
The party emerges as the biggest winner in the debacle, leveraging its strategic position to extract concessions, outmaneuver larger rivals, and exert significant influence as a coalition kingmaker.
In South Africa’s volatile political arena, realpolitik rewards agility over ideology — a lesson ActionSA has mastered.
The GNU’s survival hinges on transactional alliances, not ideology. ActionSA’s rise underscores the power of smaller parties in fragmented legislatures.
