Gauteng, South Africa’s economic hub, is set to be the battleground on which the 2024 provincial and national elections are likely to be won or lost.
The election outcomes of the country’s most populous and richest province could irrevocably change our political landscape.
That is if opposition parties succeed in their bid to finally push the ANC below 50% of the vote and, for the first time since the dawn of democracy, form a coalition government in the most industrial province – and possibly at national level.
Gauteng could become the ANC’s “Stalingrad Moment”.
In 1942, the Russian Red Army, led by Joseph Stalin, put up a huge fight in defence of the large industrial city, Stalingrad, against advancing Nazi soldiers, led by German leader Adolf Hitler during World War II. The city, which lies southwestern of Russia, did not only produce armaments and tractors, but also bore the name of the Soviet leader at the time, Stalin. Its capture by Hitler would have served as a great personal and propaganda victory.
In the final analysis of World War II, the battle of Stalingrad – which was partly bombarded by Nazi forces – was considered a turning point in Hitler’s defeat. Stalingrad comes to mind when one casts his eyes on the 2024 elections.
The ANC this week appointed its new chairperson Panyaza Lesufi as the province’s new premier, replacing David Makhura. The thinking behind the move is to allow Lesufi sufficient time to campaign for elections.
The governing party has been in serious decline in Gauteng since the 2016 local elections, after which they lost metros of Johannesburg, the country’s financial centre, the industrial region of Ekurhuleni and the capital city of Tshwane. The trend would continue as the governing party was again thrown out of Tshwane and Johannesburg by a coalition led by the DA in November last year.
The party garnered 36% of the Gauteng vote last year while for the first time since 1994, it fell below 50% of the national vote, having scraped to 45,6%.
In 2019, the governing party scored 57% of the national vote, while declining to 50,1% in Gauteng, despite president Cyril Ramaphosa being the organisation’s main drawcard.
The party’s electoral decline in Gauteng and other urban centres such as Nelson Mandela Bay and Mogale City, indicated that the organisation was becoming a rural party on the way to losing power in 2024.
This begs the question: “Will Lesufi be the ANC’s saviour?”
There is consensus across the factional divide in Gauteng that Andrek “Panyaza” Lesufi, who is known for his love of football, is the right man to save the ANC.
A provincial executive committee (PEC) member said: “In terms of PR (public relations), Panyaza resonates with Gauteng residents.”
The leader said the establishment of specialised schools in Gauteng, the introduction of tablets at schools and the province’s production of university entry qualifications in matric had boosted his career.
However, another PEC member said Lesufi could be let down by his unwillingness to take unpopular decisions.
Lesufi’s PEC has a strong presence of those who did not support him during the party’s provincial conference in June – the so-called Adiwele faction, which was led by Lebogang Maile, MEC for human settlements and infrastructure.
On Friday, Lesufi announced his cabinet, which was a political balancing act to ensure that he does not upset those who did not vote for him, who now constitute the majority in the provincial executive committee (PEC).
While there was pressure on him to drop transport MEC Jacob Mamabolo as he was not a PEC member, Lesufi, after consultation with the party’s alliance partners, instead promoted Mamabolo to the post of MEC for finance.
Dropping Mamabolo, who is a close ally of SACP chairperson Blade Nzimande, could have put him on the collision course with the communists, who are currently under pressure from Cosatu unions to contest elections against the ANC.
The promotion of Mamabolo-who is SACP Gauteng’s secretary- also bolsters Lesufi’s election machinery towards 2024, in that he does not have to worry about a backlash from the SACP and their lack of participation in the campaign to save Gauteng. Lesufi also retained Maile to his cabinet in what could be interpreted as a move to appease the
Adiwele faction.
It remains to be seen whether Lesufi will triumph where Ramaphosa and Makhura failed.
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