A short video on social media shows ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile arriving at the special congress of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) in Boksburg, east of Johannesburg on Wednesday.
The footage first shows a motorcade, then an armed bodyguard climbing out to open the door as the union delegation awaits their guest speaker to disembark.
These first few seconds of the clip suggest that the guest must be a powerful and high-profile person. True. But out walks Mashatile dressed like a guy next door.
He donned a simple ANC golf T-shirt, nothing fancy, nothing wow. But if you think it’s just minor aesthetics, you are wrong. It’s a political game.
To get some sense of contrast, imagine if the opportunity to become the country’s deputy president had fallen in the lap of ANC parliamentary chief whip, Pemmy Majodina. Yep.
But not Mashatile. He is cautious.
His rise to power has rattled some of his colleagues in the ANC, especially allies of President Cyril Ramaphosa who did not prefer him as his deputy.
They will be watching his every move for any signs that he may be a threat to Ramaphosa. Outgoing deputy president David Mabuza mastered this script.
Mashatile has to manage his public image carefully until he is confirmed as the country’s next deputy president.
And even thereafter, he must not look too threatening and too ambitious. He must look like he can’t even hurt a fly. Otherwise, it may send a wrong signal.
We know that he must be eager to take over the keys to the second highest office at the Union Buildings. But he must not show any impatience. That could be suicidal.
The same holds true for his speech at the NUM gathering.
He affirmed Ramaphosa’s marching orders in government, even if it means his input sounded repetitive like a warped version of the recent State of the Nation Address and the Budget Speech.
“In recent years, the South African mining industry has experienced falling levels of investment and exploration, job losses, and increased cost pressures,” Mashatile said in his address.
“Also disturbing is that South Africa has been unable to take full advantage of the massive increase in demand and prices for commodities. In the six months to June 2022, the mining sector contracted by 7.3%, compared with the same period in 2021.”
He explained further: “The final six months of 2022 are likely to reflect a similar downturn.
“The ongoing energy crisis, as well as serious challenges in our logistics sector, remain the biggest constraints to mining performance. It is in these areas where we are required to take the most urgent and decisive action.”
Of course, he said a lot more. But overall, Ramaphosa would be pleased with these inputs.
That said, what then is Ramaphosa’s problem? Why has he been dilly-dallying around the decision to appoint Mashatile as deputy president?
Before we try to answer, it is not a coincidence that the dominant song at the NUM congress was a slogan calling for unity – Oliver Tambo bamb’isandla sam [Oliver Tambo hold my hand]. It’s a symbolic call for unity.
No doubt, the NUM delegates would be aware that signs of any rift between Ramaphosa and Mashatile could be detrimental.
It happened before when former president Thabo Mbeki squared off with his deputy, former president Jacob Zuma.
By the way, Zuma burst into the same Oliver Tambo song soon after it was confirmed that he had pipped Mbeki for the ANC presidency at the 2007 national conference in Polokwane.
But the ANC is still bleeding from that episode and the scar runs too deep.
The government also bled, and to date, we have state institutions that were factionalised and caught up in the political crossfire. Any squabble between the ANC president and his deputy is likely to get messy.
Over time, the chattering class has made excuses for Ramaphosa’s procrastination on the Mashatile decision. Some said it was just in his nature to “over-consult”. Others said he was indecisive as usual.
We wrote stories about how the so-called “Chris Hani cabal”, a band of Eastern Cape-born ANC leaders aligned to Ramaphosa, was trying to frustrate the decision.
We said they were horrified that Mashatile would not be pliant to their interests if Phala Phala came back to bite Ramaphosa.
But let’s be frank. It is time we start asking Ramaphosa if he personally is keen to have Mashatile on board at the Union Buildings.
This question may be irrelevant after Mashatile is confirmed, but it could leave a lasting wound that will tear the ANC apart in the future.
The point is that by now, Ramaphosa should have long resolved the Mashatile question.
He has little room to maneuver, because this move was decided by ANC branch delegates at the Nasrec national conference in December.
On Tuesday, Mabuza resigned from his duties as a member of parliament to allow for Mashatile to take over. It is a fait accomplishment, for all intents and purposes.
So what exactly is Ramaphosa’s gripe?
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