As the race for the next layer of political leadership in the country to replace the old guard on the way out ensues, it’s almost clear that at the centre will be two former ANCYL presidents – Fikile Mbalula and Julius Malema.
This has become apparent since Mbalula’s election as the governing party’s administration boss at the December 2022 national conference in Nasrec, south of Joburg. Since then, Mbalula and Malema have jostled for dominance and control of the country’s political discourse.
Their epic battle peaked in the past week because of the Monday national shutdown organised by the EFF, led by Malema. It now appears that South Africans must tighten their seatbelts as this political tussle between the two is likely to intensify ahead of the watershed 2024 national and provincial elections, wherein the ANC faces a mountain to climb.
It will be a war between a Mbalula army against a Malema one-man-show.
The two are graduates of the ANCYL, which distinguishes itself as the school for future political leaders. The country’s first democratic president, Nelson Mandela, was an ANCYL alumnus.
Mbalula and Malema both have ambitions to replicate Mandela by marching all the way up to the Union Buildings. Mbalula has never expressed ambition for the country’s highest political office. However, he is strategically located as secretary-general to plot his way there. His nemesis and personal friend Malema has vowed that “I will be the president of this country”.
The stage is set and the battle begins now.
Malema, since leaving the ANC after being expelled and forming the EFF a decade ago, has become a prominent and almost dominant figure in the country’s body politic. For a decade, the governing party appeared paralysed in producing a strategy to counter his political offensive against Luthuli House and ANC leaders within the party and its government.
That the ANCYL failed to elect a strong leader to match Malema didn’t make matters easier. But December 2022 national conference happened. At that gathering, Mbalula was given the nod even though he had campaigned only for two months leading up to the event.
At last, the ANC had its most powerful office occupied by someone who matches Malema toe to toe. Mbalula preceded Malema as ANCYL president and is credited with partly anointing him to succeed him. He is seen as the master and Malema as the student.
Just like Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta at Manchester City and Arsenal in the English Premier League, Mbalula and Malema once belonged to the same ANC. Now they are at the helm of political formations competing for state power. Individually, it’s a race to see who gets the Union Buildings’ top job before the other.
At face value, Mbalula appears to have the upper hand in being elected to his powerful ANC position. He has an army of NEC members that are graduates of the Youth League school under Mbalula and Malema’s stewardship.
This gives Mbalula an upper hand in strategising on how to neutralise Malema with the assistance of his NEC colleagues who are no strangers to the EFF leader’s political maneuvers. On the other hand, Malema is running a one-man show, suffice to say with the assistance of his deputy Floyd Shivambu, who is also an ANCYL product, but two, against dozens of ANCYL graduates dominating the ANC NEC, will find it difficult to push back.
The army Mbalula has behind him is the same that is likely to push him to the ANC presidency, and ultimately the Union Buildings. This is faster than he could have imagined as their “generational takeover” mission takes shape.
But Malema can take a shortcut and become head of state before Mbalula. That is if the ANC drops below 50% in the coming elections and needs the EFF for a coalition government. With one demand for a power-sharing arrangement if the national vote is hung – president or deputy president or nothing, Malema could checkmate Mbalula and become the student who defeated the teacher.
But only time will tell.
For now, the two are testing each other’s strengths. This was epitomised this week by their national shutdown tit-for-tat on whether it was a “success” as Malema believes it was against Mbalula’s insistence that the same was a “flop”.
Mbalula, despite overwhelming evidence in the public domain, insists that there is “no war” between himself and Malema. “There is no war between me and Malema. He is the EFF leader and I am the ANC secretary-general. Yes, I did play a part in his political development and defended him when he was expelled from the ANC,” said a diplomatic Mbalula.
“So there are no personality issues here. Even Malema says we are friends, but I do not know friends who attack each other personally. What is that?”
Malema is however not so coy about the unfolding political tiff between himself and the ANC day-to-day operations boss but accuses his rival of starting it and issued a stern warning that it might get ugly.
Malema argues that if the name-calling between the two is described as degeneracy, Mbalula should bear the blame.
“The ANC has never been at this lowest level both in thinking and character. The secretary-general of the ANC is the highest level of degeneration of the ANC. It cannot be beyond this,” said Malema.
According to the EFF leader, Mbalula’s competition with him is driven by envy and “listening to that nonsense that says Malema has met his match”.
Said Malema: “He is envious of me. He envies me like all of them, especially the ones I grew up with in the youth league. They envy me, and if they get an opportunity, they will kill me. I am not scared of Mbalula. He has never done anything for me, and I do not need anything from him.”
Malema is adamant that he “will not be intimidated by Mbalula” whom he cautioned to “stop pushing me” before their ping-pong of words gets “extremely personal”.
With the EFF launching its 2024 elections manifesto in July and the ANC likely to do so anytime this year, the faceoff between Mbalula and Malema is destined to be the dominant feature in the scramble to win the electorate’s hearts.
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