Private security group Fidelity has fingered the United Independent Movement, whose leader Neil de Beer is highly active on YouTube, as spearheading a growing #ANCMustFall sentiment following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s address on national security matters on Sunday.
The report by the multinational security solutions provider, which we have seen, claims there is a spike and resurgence of the #ANCMustFall narrative since Sunday.
Concentrated in the Western Cape
De Beer is the former national security advisor to late statesman, world-revered anti-apartheid activist, and Nobel Peace Prize winner Nelson Mandela.
Fidelity found that the #ANCMustFall offensive is mainly concentrated in the Western Cape and is coupled with hashtags such as #UnitedIndependentMovement, #VoteUIM2024, #VoteNeilDeBeer2024.
“Among the top influencers, the United Independent Movement (UIM) leads in terms of both reach and engagement. With just two YouTube posts, UIM achieved a reach of 35.5K and generated 2.4K engagements, reflecting an exceptionally high engagement rate per mention (1.2K).
“This indicates that their content resonated strongly with audiences. And likely served as a catalyst in shaping anti-ANC sentiment during this period,” reads the Fidelity report.
“Influential opposition actors, particularly the UIM, have successfully capitalised on this moment to amplify their narratives. This suggests that the ANC is facing both public disillusionment and strategic opposition messaging on multiple fronts.
Deeply politicised online environment
“The hashtag ecosystem surrounding #ANCMustFall reveals a deeply politicised and emotionally charged online environment.
“Dominant hashtags include variations such as #ANCMustFall, #ancmustfall, and #RamaphosaMustGo. This is reflecting a coordinated narrative targeting the ruling party and its leadership.
“The dataset also reflects growing traction for alternative political movements. Hashtags such as #UnitedIndependentMovement, #VoteUIM2024, #VoteNeilDeBeer2024, and #uimsa2026 are positioning themselves as vehicles of political change.”
The Fidelity study concludes that the resurgence of the #ANCMustFall narrative is a result of a shift in public mood. This is marked by frustration, political fatigue, and a growing appetite for accountability.
Broader indictment of ANC governance
“Triggered by the president’s announcement regarding the [special leave] of the police minister (Senzo Mchunu), the conversation rapidly evolved into a broader indictment of ANC governance, law enforcement credibility, and institutional decay.
“The volume of posts remains relatively contained. However, the intensity of engagement, the sharp negativity in sentiment, and the coordinated use of political hashtags point to a movement that is both ideologically charged and digitally agile.”
Western Cape and Gauteng have been identified as the epicentres, while KZN is minimally involved. Eastern Cape is totally nonchalant and blue-ticking the whole #ANCMustFall. convo.
Most of the participants, the study shows, are young men in the age range of 18 to 34. The overall split of participants lopsided towards males at 85.9% participation against females at 14.1%.
The participants are overwhelmingly urban, most having access to the internet. The profession of teacher has emerged as another interesting trend among those partaking in the #ANCMustFall conversation on social media platforms.
Led by young urban males
“Overall, the demographic profile suggests that the conversation is being led by young, English-speaking males with broad cultural interests. Factors which may influence the framing and emotional tone of the messaging.”
The findings of the Fidelity study are not far off from what the State Security Agency seems to have picked up about the risks of a regime change in South Africa. This is according to the minister in the presidency responsible for intelligence, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.
Briefing the media on Tuesday, Ntshavheni said: “There is a potential risk of a coup d’état. And we have identified it, and we have put measures to mitigate against it.”
