We are easing into the holiday season. Still, we continue to receive a few key data points that help us better understand developments in the South African farming sector.
Amongst other things, we also follow the wheat harvest process, which is currently underway across the country.
This is a winter crop that was planted from May to June across various regions of South Africa.
In the major producing provinces, the Western and Northern Cape, the weather has been relatively warm, enabling the farmers to proceed well with harvesting.
The wheat delivered to commercial silos between the beginning of September and December 5, 2025, stands at 1.33-million tonnes.
This volume equals 65% of South Africa’s expected 2025-26 wheat harvest of 2.03-million tonnes. By the way, the harvest for the season is up 5% from the 2024-25 season.
The annual improvement is boosted by the expected better harvest in the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo.
The Western Cape, which accounts for over half of South Africa’s winter wheat production, is expected to experience a mild decline in the harvest this year compared to the 2024-25 season due to unfavourable weather conditions in some parts of the province.
A potential wheat harvest of 2.03-million tonnes implies that South Africa may need to import approximately 1.74-million tonnes in the 2025-26 season to meet our annual needs.
Large harvests expected
These imports are expected to be down 5% from the 2024-25 season. The import activity is unlikely to pose a challenge. We have ample global wheat supplies, which will ease South Africa’s import activity.
For example, the International Grains Council forecasts a record 2025-26 global wheat harvest of 830-million tonnes, up 4% from the previous season.
This is mainly due to expected large harvests in the EU, Russia, the US, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, China, India, Argentina, and Kazakhstan, amongothers.
Given ample global supplies and moderate usage, global wheat stocks for the 2025-26 season are expected to increase by 4% to 275-million tonnes. It is because of these ample global stocks that prices have remained under pressure.
With the domestic wheat production figures we have at hand, combined with global wheat supplies, we view the situation as boding well for a moderating path of food price inflation.
Wheat prices are likely to remain relatively low for some time. South Africa’s wheat spot price was R5 820 per tonne on December 12, 2025, down 1% year-on-year.
Also worth noting is that increases in production costs over time, and the fact that some farmers had to replant in the Western Cape at the start of the season due to snail infestations, imply financial pressures on some farmers.
Therefore, the generally lower prices, while conducive for consumers, add pressure on farmers. This remains a significant challenge for the industry; as a result, there have been calls for higher import tariffs.
In essence, the wheat harvest for the 2025-26 season in South Africa looks promising and is progressing well. The warm weather in the Northern and Western Capes continues to support the wheat harvest.
Farmers face price pressures
I hear the crop quality seems reasonably good. This is something I had worried about because of the rainy weather at the start of the season.
The decent domestic supplies, combined with the abundant global supplies, ensure that consumers will have access to reasonably priced wheat.
But for farmers, there are price pressures, not only because of relatively lower wheat prices, but also due to the general increase in input costs, such as fertilisers, fuel, and agrochemicals.
Thus, South Africa has an import tariff that seeks to strike a balance between the welfare of farmers and consumers.
The sustainability of the domestic wheat farming industry is key. Equally important is ensuring that consumers have access to reasonably priced wheat, which thereby improves food affordability.
