Little improvement is expected in jobs data as Statistics SA is scheduled to release the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for the 2025 fourth quarter on Tuesday.
The forecast is according to independent economist Mandla Maleka, who says structural issues in the economy continue to weigh on employment.
“I mention that it could be a tad higher. But just a tad, nothing more. Numbers would be higher but won’t make a dent.
“Eight million people would be registered as officially unemployed. Unemployment below 30%? I bet my bottom dollar it possibly won’t happen,” said Maleka.
He explained that migration patterns and holiday slowdowns reduce labour activity, particularly in major economic centres such as Johannesburg, where many workers travel during the festive season.
Persistent structural challenges
Maleka said expectations are that the fourth-quarter labour data will show only limited movement, reflecting persistent structural challenges in the country’s job market rather than a strong recovery.
The official unemployment rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points to 31.9% in the third quarter, down from 33.2% in the second quarter, meaning 8-million people remained unemployed. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate stood at 31.9%.
Maleka said the labour market has struggled to recover in a meaningful way since the Covid-19 pandemic, with only modest improvements recorded despite seasonal hiring in certain sectors of the economy.
“The country has never materially recovered post-Covid, bleeding jobs. At over 31.9%—the last reading in quarter three of 2025—it’ll be hard to outperform the number by any significant margin.
“There’s a marginal chance of an uptick in fourth-quarter 2025 employment informed by the seasonal demand for festive labour, among others, informed by activities around ‘traditional Black Friday’ deals and heightened demand for labour over the period,” said Maleka.
He said unemployment remains structurally high, with more than 8-million people still out of work and many discouraged job seekers not included in official figures.
Economy not creating enough jobs
According to Maleka, the economy is not creating enough sustainable jobs, and global shifts such as the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) could further slow employment growth.
He explained that on a year-on-year basis, most industries shed jobs in the third quarter of 2025, with only construction, finance, and transport often recording gains.
Mining, agriculture, manufacturing, utilities, trade, community service, and private households all reported declines over the same period.
Maleka said seasonal retail activity and promotional periods may have supported employment late in the year, but this would likely be offset by slower activity in other parts of the economy.
“Construction closes early in December, bankers close, and mines operate at a minimal level, as does manufacturing.
“The sales employment uptick won’t make a material dent. Private households also take a break,” said Maleka.
