Global passenger demand for air travel recorded modest growth in March 2026, but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East created stark regional disparities that weighed on overall performance.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), total passenger demand – measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) – rose by 2.1% year on year. This came despite a 1.7% decline in capacity, pushing the global load factor up to a healthy 83.6%.
However, international travel told a different story. Demand fell by 0.6% compared to March 2025, marking the first decline since March 2021. Capacity dropped sharply by 6.2%, while load factors improved to 84.1% as airlines adjusted supply.
Collapse in traffic from the Middle East
The downturn was largely driven by a dramatic collapse in traffic from the Middle East, where carriers recorded a staggering 60.8% drop in international demand due to airspace closures linked to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict.
IATA director-general Willie Walsh said the crisis significantly distorted global figures.
“Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. The nearly 61% decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1%. Outside of the Middle East demand grew by 8%,” Walsh said.
Counterbalance from domestic markets
Domestic markets provided a strong counterbalance, with demand rising by 6.5% year-on-year, supported by a 5.6% increase in capacity. This segment continues to underpin the industry’s recovery, particularly in large markets such as China and Brazil.
Outside the Middle East, international markets performed robustly. Asia-Pacific airlines led growth with an 11.5% increase in demand, boosted by the tail end of Lunar New Year travel and strong expansion on most global routes. European carriers followed with a 7.7% rise, supported by a surge in Europe-Asia travel as airlines rerouted flights to avoid Middle Eastern airspace.
North American airlines posted a 3.7% increase, with steady transatlantic demand and improving traffic between Asia and North America. Latin American carriers recorded a 12.1% rise, while African airlines delivered the strongest growth globally at 19.2%.
Walsh warned that rising jet fuel prices and potential supply disruptions remain key risks.
“Extraordinarily high fuel costs are increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not yet impacted demand, it remains to be seen when passenger behaviour could shift,” he said.
He added that regulators may need to grant airlines greater flexibility on airport slots as the industry navigates airspace restrictions and potential fuel shortages.
Despite current headwinds, IATA said the upcoming summer travel season overseas is expected to remain busy, although airline resilience will continue to be tested.
- Global air travel demand grew modestly by 2.1% in March 2026, despite a 1.7% decline in capacity, leading to a strong load factor of 83.6%.
- International travel demand fell 0.6%, the first drop since March 2021, mainly due to a 60.8% collapse in Middle Eastern traffic amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict and airspace closures.
- Domestic markets saw a strong 6.5% demand increase, driven by countries like China and Brazil, supporting overall industry recovery.
- Outside the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, Latin America, and Africa experienced significant international demand growth, with Africa leading at 19.2%.
- Rising jet fuel prices and potential supply disruptions pose risks; regulators may need to offer airlines slot flexibility as airlines navigate ongoing geopolitical and fuel cost challenges.
Global passenger demand for air travel recorded modest growth in March 2026, but the ongoing conflict in the
However, international travel told a different story.
IATA director-general Willie
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Domestic markets provided a strong counterbalance, with demand rising by 6.5% year-on-year, supported by a 5.6% increase in capacity.
Outside the
“Extraordinarily high fuel costs are increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not yet impacted demand, it remains to be seen when passenger behaviour could shift,” he said.
He added that regulators may need to grant airlines greater flexibility on airport slots as the industry navigates airspace restrictions and potential fuel shortages.
Despite current headwinds, IATA said the upcoming summer travel season overseas is expected to remain busy, although airline resilience will continue to be tested.
