South Africa may miss its maize export forecast of 2.4-million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends in April.
The exports so far are at 1.7 million tonnes as of the first week of March 2026. Given a softer weekly export pace, it is unlikely that the country will see strong enough momentum in the remaining weeks of the current marketing year to reach the 2.4-million tonnes seasonal forecast for maize exports.
The challenge is the softer global demand, not supply availability.
Confidence subdued
Meanwhile, the fact that we are observing a weakening sentiment or confidence levels in the South African farming sector doesn’t mean all is bad across the board.
We see a subdued mood among the cattle farming industry because of the ongoing challenges of foot-and-mouth disease, African swine fever in pigs, and profitability issues in the wheat and sugar industries.
The Middle East issues add to this already challenging environment.
Aside from these, we expect a decent crop harvest in our summer grains, oilseeds, sugarcane, fruits, wine, and vegetables.
We also expect the sector’s performance to remain at decent levels this year, as will employment conditions.
Still, not all is well. The above issues remain the sector’s major constraints.
So, when one looks at the news articles about the weaker confidence levels in South Africa’s agriculture, this is valuable context to keep in mind.
The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, a sentiment indicator in the sector, fell by 18 points in the first quarter of 2026 to 49. A level below the 50-neutral mark typically indicates pessimism.
Fertiliser supplies
Meanwhile, it’s probably fair to assume we will get a clearer view of fertiliser supplies for the 2026-2027 summer crop season in South Africa by around June. Indeed, we will be nearing the start of the season then, as plantings begin in October 2026.
Currently, we see price surges driven by fears of supply constraints. But we can’t be certain that supplies will remain constrained for some time, as we don’t know when the war will end or when logistics will clear to move the fertilisers.
Farmers globally, and here in South Africa, are paying higher fertiliser prices ahead of the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season, driven by the “fear” of supply constraints.
It is likely fair to assume we have some fertiliser supplies for now, but the uncertainty about the path ahead, combined with higher shipping costs, is driving up prices, among other factors.
Of course, domestically, we also don’t have much room for the government to cushion farmers in such times.
The challenges we are facing now are lower commodity prices and surging input costs, which are putting farmers in a tough financial position.
We are stuck with rising farm input costs because of “fear about fear”.
