At the beginning of October 2025, I spent some time on the road, which allowed me to assess early planting activity for the 2025/2026 summer crop season. I was encouraged by what I saw.
Indeed, in the eastern regions of the country, farmers were already busy tilling the land to take advantage of the early summer rains.
I observed activity in some areas of Gauteng, the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape.
These are mainly yellow maize and soybean growing regions, crops that are key to the livestock industry.
Season starting on schedule
Given that the 2024/2025 season was roughly a month and a half late, there was concern that the upcoming season may also be slightly behind the typical schedule. But that is not what we are observing on the ground.
The fieldwork currently underway suggests the season is starting on schedule, allowing the crop to mature early before any potential frost later in the season.
Importantly, the most recent update from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) is now broadly aligned with other international weather forecasters, who say the 2025-26 summer may be a La Niña season.
This would be beneficial for crop production and all other agricultural activities.
On September 30, the SAWS stated that the latest forecasts:
“indicate that we are moving towards at least a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season. As the period of uncertainty for ENSO during winter and early spring draws to an end, the predictions become more accurate. There are still some predictions that remain neutral. However, a La Niña State is more likely and gaining confidence as we near the summer seasons”.
The La Niña-induced rains may persist through to February 2026, a key period for summer grains and oilseeds.
If the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed production season continues with minimal interruptions, as we expect, the crop could pollinate around February 2026.
The crop requires increased moisture during the flowering or pollination stages. This coincides with the rainy period within the above forecasts, which supports the crop and underscores our optimism about the upcoming season.
While my early assessment of plantings is based mainly on fieldwork in the eastern regions of South Africa, I note that the western areas are likely only to see the start of planting from mid-November onwards.
This would still be an optimal period for crops to receive rainfall that supports their growing conditions.
While I will continue to monitor planting activity and crop conditions in the months ahead, another area that will require continuous focus is biosecurity.
Intensity of rainfall a critical factor
South Africa continues to face challenges related to foot-and-mouth disease, resulting in financial losses in some feedlots and livestock farms.
The work of addressing this challenge and reviving vaccine manufacturing must continue to ensure the sector is on a positive footing going into 2026.
Notably, the rainy summer may present other disease challenges for livestock, but the primary focus remains on foot-and-mouth disease.
Overall, my optimistic expectations for the 2025-26 summer appear to be gaining early support, as fieldwork has started on time in the eastern regions of South Africa.
Whether farmers plant the typical area for summer grains and oilseeds or not is something we will watch closely in the coming months.
We know from the Crop Estimates Committee’s data that they intend to plant 4.5-million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season.
While I remain upbeat about the 2025-26 season, I am fully aware that a crop cycle is long, and uncertainty about the intensity and timing of rainfall throughout the cycle is a critical factor in achieving yields.
Note: This is an updated version of Sihlobo’s Business Day essay.
