The conversations about the review of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) will resume in the US this week.
We hope for an extension of it, with continuous inclusion of South Africa. This will be valuable to our farming industry, the auto sector, and others.
The US leadership has been vocal about the South African farming sector, though it is incorrect to assert that they are under siege. Still, the renewal of AGOA will benefit the farmers.
Zooming into South Africa’s farming sector alone, I must emphasise that the US remains an important market. The US accounted for approximately 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports, valued at $13.7-billion (R225-billion) in 2024.
Agricultural exports rise by 26%
The exports were also strong in the first two quarters of 2025. Even after the Liberation Day tariffs were announced, some exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual.
In fact, in the second quarter of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US increased by 26% to $161-million.
It was only in the third quarter of 2025 that we saw some cooling in exports. Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period a year ago, at $144-million.
The composition of the products hasn’t changed much; it is mainly citrus, wine, fruit juices, and nuts, among other typical agricultural exports to the US.
South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US accounted for a 3% share of overall farm product exports in the third quarter of 2025 (slightly down from the 4% annual figure in 2024, as exports in other areas increased more).
The 3% share of the US in South African agricultural exports is not small, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices.
Since the start of AGOA, South Africa’s share of agricultural exports to the US has remained at these levels.
From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the US.
It is also worth highlighting that the US has decided to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products, thus easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and US consumers.
The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers and tomatoes, beef, and additional fertilisers.
Higher tariffs make access challenging
From a South African perspective, it appears that oranges, macadamia nuts and fruit juices will benefit from the exemption.
The rest of South Africa’s agricultural products currently face a 30% import tariff in the US market.
If the country were in a position where the AGOA, which offers South Africa and other African countries lower-duty access to the U.S., were not renewed, we would face slightly higher tariffs.
South Africa would likely face around 33% tariffs if we also account for the previous most favoured nations tariff rates before the Liberation Day Tariffs.
I have added a 3% lower-end average here, but the MFN rates may differ product by product.
My point is not to be exact but to make the case that the directional tariff level will be higher than the current 30%.
These higher tariff levels would make access to the US market more challenging for various agricultural products, as competitors such as Chile and Peru face much lower tariff rates of around 10%, making them more price-competitive with South Africa.
But we remain hopeful about the renewal of AGOA and South Africa’s continuous inclusion.
