At Davos last week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gave voice to what many have quietly understood for some time: the pleasant fiction of a rules-constrained international order is over.
What the architects of globalisation called interdependence, great powers now treat as leverage. Tariffs have become instruments of coercion; supply chains, points of vulnerability.
Carney’s call for “middle powers” to pursue “value-based realism” – principled commitment to sovereignty and human rights, combined with pragmatic recognition that interests diverge – resonated because it describes the strategic posture democratic South Africa has ostensibly pursued.
This geopolitical “rupture” creates both risk and opportunity for economies like ours.
The risks are evident: potential tariff barriers, uncertainty about multilateral institutions, and the weaponisation of economic relationships all create headwinds for export-orientated growth. The opportunities lie in the premium now placed on reliable, principled partners. Countries seeking to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on any single power are actively looking for credible alternatives. South Africa can potentially be one – but only if we act strategically.
The assets we bring to this moment are substantial. We hold critical minerals essential to the energy transition. We have agricultural capacity that has more than doubled since 1994, with exports now approaching $14-billion annually. We offer market access to a continent of 1.4-billion people through the African Continental Free Trade Area. These are bargaining chips in a world reconfiguring its economic relationships. The question is whether we will deploy them with strategic intent or let them be leveraged with no clear benefit to ourselves.
South Africa arrived at Davos this year with something we lacked 12 months ago: evidence. The 2025 WEF delegation offered a message of cautious hope grounded in policy commitments. In 2026, we could point to the results of these commitments: exit from the Financial Action Task Force grey list; a credit-rating upgrade; a 98% reduction in loadshedding since 2023; progress on logistics reforms, including port concessions and private operators accessing rail networks; and consecutive primary budget surpluses, demonstrating fiscal discipline.
Articulating sought-after commitments provokes the curiosity of international investors, but delivery on those commitments alters sovereign-risk calculations and positions a country as a credible potential partner. Finance minister Enoch Godongwana and the delegation’s engagements at South Africa House are said to have reflected this shift, comprising “successful meetings with global investors, potential investors and business partners”.
The announcement that South Africa will host the Africa World Economic Forum’s spring meeting in 2027 signals international confidence in both our organisational capacity and our role in advancing African development, especially after the country’s successful hosting of the G20 Summit in November 2025.
While credibility creates options, it does not guarantee outcomes. Our reforms have earned us some space to work proactively to serve our interests at an opportune time on the world stage.
But the opportunity lies in our ability to use that power strategically. South Africa needs to build resilience by taking a firmer, longer-term and more strategic view of industrialisation, localisation, and export-led growth. These aspirations underpin strategic autonomy, but their achievement requires consistent, proactive application of protective and developmental policies.
Attracting new foreign direct investment matters, but protecting and expanding existing industrial capacity is often more achievable and equally important. Manufacturers already operating here, already employing workers and already embedded in supply chains represent an industrial base that is far easier to defend than to rebuild.
Recent sectoral pressures – from tobacco manufacturing undermined by illicit trade to steel production facing global oversupply to automotive plants threatened by cheap imports and dumping, to industries facing an impending gas shortage – illustrate the cost of reactive policymaking.
The government has responded to individual crises, but often too late. The pattern demands a more coherent approach. Strategic selectivity must guide our approach to international partnerships. Foreign investment that builds manufacturing capacity and creates employment serves our interests; arrangements that simply use South Africa as a market for finished goods erode our industrial base.
Every trade agreement, every investment opportunity and every economic relationship should be assessed against clear criteria: Does it create quality employment in South Africa? Does it build or erode our industrial capacity? Does it expand our export capabilities and market access? Does it reduce or increase our vulnerability to external coercion?
Deepening relationships with other emerging markets navigating similar challenges – Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam – opens new export markets, creates opportunities for technology partnerships, and provides alternatives when traditional partners become unreliable or impose unfavourable terms. The expansion of our agricultural exports to Asia and the Middle East shows how this can be done.
Strategic autonomy starts at home. A country that cannot provide reliable electricity, efficient logistics, and functioning local government has limited leverage in any negotiation.
International credibility built on reform must be sustained by continued domestic reform.
The electricity market must become genuinely competitive, with independent transmission and active trading that drives efficiency and investment. Logistics concessioning must accelerate across rail and ports to address the bottlenecks that still constrain exporters.
Local government performance must improve to provide the reliable basic services that underpin economic activity. Criminal justice capacity must be strengthened to protect property rights and enforce contracts.
These fundamentals determine whether international credibility translates into the long-term investment and the job creation we need.
The progress we have made is real. We have made a start.
Davos 2026 will be remembered as the moment when the post-war economic order’s fragility was explicitly acknowledged. For South Africa, it should be remembered as the moment we recognised that reform success has given us something we have not had in years: the opportunity to set our own course. We must use it wisely.
We must be strategic about partnerships, protective of our industrial base, and relentless in pursuing the domestic reforms that underpin our continued credibility. The choices we make now will shape our economic trajectory for decades. We have earned the right to make them on our own terms.
• Mavuso is CEO of Business Leadership South Africa.
