A lot has been said about the DA possibly leaving the government of national unity (GNU) coalition led by the ANC.
Sometimes the threats have emanated from the DA itself, while the ANC has persistently dared them to leave if they so wish.
Progressive Caucus waiting for DA exit
Elsewhere in the defunct Progressive Caucus led by MKP and EFF, they are eagerly awaiting the exit of the DA so they could occupy the resultant vacuum.
The sad news for all of them is that the DA will not leave the GNU, not today, not next year and not even after the potentially toxic ANC 2027 national elective congress.
If anything at all, the ANC would have to elect a suicide-bomber radical as president who is naive enough to want to expel the DA from the GNU.
Many believe such a leader is Paul Mashatile, which, in my view, is wishful thinking if the history of the man is anything to go by.
Anyway, back to the central question of why the DA will not leave the GNU.
To fully understand this not-so-complex political situation, one needs to delve into the reasons why the DA is in the GNU in the first place.
DA eyeing bigger prize: power
The primary reason for the DA being in the GNU is to wrestle political power back to the white power structure that the party represents.
DA leaders have hinted at this in not so many words, but obvious enough for those that pay attention to detail.
The sometimes overly honest DA federal council chairperson Helen Zille has publicly stated before how big business pushed the DA to work with the ANC “to stop EFF and MKP”.
Obviously, the ANC has largely protected the interests of the white power structure since the advent of democracy.
But elements of rabble-rousing groupings, such as the emergence of the now dead-in-the-water former so-called Radical Economic Transformation, have threatened the stranglehold of “big business”.
It is for this reason that it was no longer a safe option to back an ANC that is governing with an outright majority in the event that one day a real and genuine radical emerges from within the ANC.
DA ‘keeping ANC in check’
This is where the DA comes into the GNU, to keep the ANC in check and ensure it does not veer off the neoliberal policy posture it has maintained since 1994.
For this alone, forget about the DA exiting the GNU voluntarily; it just will not happen.
But the second aspect is one of natural personal interest that every human has, especially politicians.
The DA ministers that are benefitting from the very many perks that come with political office in South Africa will never support any such suggestion to exit the GNU.
And what solidifies their position more is that party leader John Steenhuisen is among them.
This scribe has learnt of how Steenhuisen, for instance, after being appointed Minister of Agriculture, moved his entire family from Durban to Pretoria.
Steenhuisen in it for the long haul
That is not a man who is planning to be out of the national executive anytime soon. If anything, such a move is of a man who believes that at least for five years Pretoria and Cape Town will be his places of work.
And the likelihood of the GNU continuing post-2029 makes Steenhuisen more firm in his resolve to get his family close to his workplace as a minister.
If there is anything keeping Steenhuisen awake at night, it is not the DA exiting the GNU but how to win the DA elective congress next year to secure his personal political future.
Steenhuisen is very motivated to stay inside the GNU, along with his DA colleagues, who now no longer drive themselves and are barely stuck in traffic with ordinary people.
They will not relinquish this lifestyle voluntarily. In fairness to them, no one would.
This is why all the periodic threats of a DA leaving every time there is a stalemate with the ANC in the GNU are nothing but political theatre to entertain the masses.
Wishful thinking
It is also wishful thinking for those who genuinely believe such a possibility exists.
Even the block within the DA said to be led by Zille wanting out is doing so just for vibes; they do not mean it.
As for the ANC comrades wishing for the DA to leave so that the space can open up in the national executive gravy train, get a job outside politics now before it is too late.
The only hopes that may someday come to fruition are those of the EFF, but even with them, they would have to contend with the DA’s presence in the GNU, which is highly unlikely they will agree to, but not impossible.
Why not impossible? The EFF has assisted the DA to govern at the local government level before, after the 2016 municipal elections.
The less said about the self-mutilating MKP, the better.
Even in the event of Mashatile winning the ANC top post in 2027, which is where some seem to have placed their hopes for the DA’s exit from GNU, it will not happen.
Mashatile will simply be whipped into line to continue where his predecessor would have left off.
Paul Mashatile
This is a man who is historically an ally of the white power structure; he has worked very well with them during the long and eventually successful “Zuma Must Fall” political manoeuvre.
What if ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula wins 2027?
That is an even better guarantee because he is a proponent of the GNU in its current setup, whose signature is ingrained in the founding document of the GNU — the Statement of Intent.
Further future security for a GNU with the DA is the fact that the race for ANC president in 2027 has now been joined by billionaire Patrice Motsepe.
Enter Patrice Motsepe
With a Motsepe rise to the ANC summit, the status quo would remain firmly in place because he is “a Ramaphosa that went to private school”, as ama2000 would say.
Motsepe is a beneficiary of the white power structure and neoliberal offensive that is strangling the low income earners. So he is self-motivated to tighten the screws on the current system.
The DA is not going anywhere. If anything, the blue party is bound to have more influence and control in the GNU that will emerge post the 2029 national and provincial elections.
