The world knew that if Donald J Trump won the 2024 presidential election in the US, we would all have cause for serious concern, but alas, it seems the American people thought otherwise.
They bought into the campaign rhetoric of stopping all the wars and being a peace president, that he was going to stop the Ukraine war within 24 hours, and that the southern border would be made a fortress. Coupled with that were promises that all illegal immigrants would be deported, arrested, and sent to detention facilities elsewhere in the world.
He also courted the Islamic vote with promises of ending the genocide in Gaza.
Most of the above turned out to be blatant lies.
“Make America Great Again (MAGA),” it seems, is the purview of the billionaire class in America, not ordinary citizens. Didn’t you get the memo? Trump is ruling by executive decree and completely ignoring and/or circumventing Congress, the courts, and anything that remotely resembles strategic thinking.
Contrary to Trump’s ongoing lies, the US economy is in freefall. Debt levels are unsustainable, and no one is prepared to purchase any further or future US Treasury bonds, lest they themselves go down with this titanic of an economy.
China is in the process of rapidly dumping US Treasury bonds, adding to the woes of ballooning debt.
Trump is hoping that during an official state visit to China in April, he and President Xi Jinping can enter into a “grand bargain” to stave off imminent disaster for the US economy, and in turn, the global economy.
This is the same America that continuously reminds us that China is its arch-enemy and rival. Chip wars, semiconductor restrictions, trade wars, and continuous sabre-rattling remain the order of the day.
Meanwhile, China is adapting, diversifying its trade, and becoming less dependent on an increasingly hostile US administration.
It is developing its own advanced chips and expanding trade relationships with the rest of the world.
Furthermore, its Belt and Road Initiative is making headway in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and beyond.
In short, China is building while the US is bombing. Out of desperation and a desire to divert Americans’ attention from economic catastrophe, Trump decides to illegally invade Venezuela and abduct its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife.
Instead of responding consistently with international law, Europe finds it difficult to condemn outright the illegal actions of the US and is suddenly incapable of acting against such an aggressor in the same way it acted against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
The EU and US froze Russia’s foreign reserves to the tune of $300 billion (R4.9 trillion), removed it from the SWIFT international payments system, imposed more than 2,000 sanctions, and withdrew European businesses from the country.
Europe is too dependent on the US — for security, cloud computing, AI, and financial systems. It simply cannot stand up to “Daddy Trump,” even if he decides to take Greenland tomorrow — which he will.
By blindly following the US into this proxy war against Russia, Europe acquiesced to the bombing and destruction of gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. This caused immeasurable damage to European economies, especially Germany, the manufacturing heartbeat of Europe.
Applying game theory to 2026 — where actors do whatever is necessary to optimise self-interest — we are likely to see an attack on Iran. The aim is to force China to rely on the Western Hemisphere for energy and critical minerals instead of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
The taking of Greenland will ultimately lead to the breaking up of NATO, forcing Europe to decide its future.
For South Africa, the political campaign forged against us by the Trump administration and Zionist interests will intensify. This will result in our removal from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, alongside direct sanctions against political parties, politicians, and others in our society.
In the book Why Nations Fail, the authors argue that a nation’s prosperity or poverty stems from its political and economic institutions. Inclusive institutions foster growth, while extractive institutions — which concentrate power and wealth among elites — lead to failure and instability.
For nations to succeed, they must transition from extractive to inclusive institutions, ensuring political and economic freedom for most citizens, which drives long-term development.
Trump, however, is doing the opposite. The emperor is naked, and the empire is collapsing.
• Van Heerden is a research fellow at the African Diplomacy Institute, University of Johannesburg.
