The world knew that if Donald J Trump won the 2024 presidential election in the US, we would all have cause for serious concern, but alas, it seems the American people thought otherwise.
They bought into the campaign rhetoric of stopping all the wars and being a peace president, that he was going to stop the Ukraine war within 24 hours, and that the southern border would be made a fortress, and coupled to that, all illegal immigrants will be deported, arrested and sent to detention facilities elsewhere in the world.
He also courted the Islamic vote with promises of ending the genocide in Gaza.
Most of the above turned out to be blatant lies.
“Make America Great Again (Maga),” it seems, is the purview of the billionaire class in America, not the ordinary citizens. Didn’t you get the memo? Trump is ruling by executive decree and completely ignoring and/or circumventing Congress, the courts and indeed anything that remotely resembles strategic thinking.
Contrary to Trump’s ongoing lies, the US economy is in freefall; debt levels are unsustainable, and no one is prepared to purchase any further and/or future US treasury bonds, lest they themselves go down with this titanic of an economy.
China is in the process of rapidly dumping US treasury bonds, thus adding to the woes of a ballooning debt.
Trump is hoping that at the official state visit to China in April, he and President Xi Jinping can enter into a “grand bargain” to stave off imminent disaster for the US economy, and in turn the global economy.
By the way, this is the same America that continuously reminds us that China is their arch-enemy and rival. Chip wars, semiconductors, trade wars and continuous sabre-rattling remain the order of the day for the US.
Meanwhile, China is adapting, diversifying its trade and becoming less dependent on an increasingly hostile US administration.
It is developing its own super chips and diversifying its trade with the rest of the world.
Furthermore, its Belt and Road initiative is making headway in Africa, Asia, Latin America and further afield.
In short, China is building while the US is bombing. And so, out of sheer desperation and wanting to divert the Americans’ attention away from this economic catastrophe, Trump decides to illegally invade Venezuela and abduct its president, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife.
Instead of responding consistently with international law, we see a Europe that finds it difficult to condemn outright the illegal actions of the US and is suddenly incapable of acting against such an aggressor in much the same way they did against Russia, after it invaded Ukraine.
The EU and US froze Russia’s foreign reserves to the tune of $300-billion (R4.9-trillion) held in European banks, removed it from the international payments system Swift, imposed over 2 000 sanctions, and withdrew European businesses from that country.
Europe is too dependent on the mighty US. It is dependent on it for its security, cloud
computing, AI and financial systems. It simply cannot go up against Daddy Trump, even if he decides to take Greenland tomorrow, which he will.
Because Europe blindly followed the US into this proxy war against Russia, they acquiesced to the bombing and destruction of the gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, which in turn caused immeasurable damage to the European economies, especially in Germany, the manufacturing heartbeat of Europe.
So, for 2026, when applying game theory where actors do whatever is needed to optimise their self-interests, we will see an attack on Iran soon. The reason being that the US wants to force China to be more reliant for its energy needs and critical mineral needs on the Western Hemisphere and not Russia, Iran and Venezuela, for example.
The taking of Greenland will ultimately lead to the breaking up of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and Europe will have to decide their fate going forward.
For South Africa, the political campaign forged against us by the Trump administration and the Zionists will intensify and result in our removal from the African Growth and Opportunity Act, direct sanctions are being placed on political parties, politicians and others in our society.
In the book, Why Nations Fail, the author argues that a nation’s prosperity or poverty stems from its political and economic institutions. Inclusive institutions foster growth, while extractive institutions (concentrating power and wealth in elites) cause failure, creating vicious cycles of poverty and instability.
For nations to succeed, they must transition from extractive to inclusive institutions, ensuring political and economic freedom for most citizens, which drives long-term development.
But alas, Trump is doing the former and not interested in the latter, hence the emperor is
naked, and the empire is collapsing.
• Van Heerden is research fellow at the African Diplomacy Institute, University of Johannesburg.
