Global demand for air travel is expected to more than double by 2050, according to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) latest Long-Term Demand Projections.
In IATA’s central or mid-range scenario, global passenger demand is projected to reach 20.8-trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050. This means a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1% from the 9-trillion RPKs recorded in 2024. In a higher growth scenario with a CAGR of 3.3%, demand could climb to 21.9-trillion RPKs, while a lower growth outlook of 2.9% CAGR sees demand reaching 19.5-trillion RPKs.
Africa, Asia Pacific to drive most of the expansion
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the outlook reflects a strong global appetite for travel. “People want to travel and, under all our scenarios, demand is expected to more than double by mid-century.” He added that aviation growth will unlock economic opportunities and job creation worldwide.
Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia Pacific, are set to drive much of this expansion. Africa is forecast to grow at 3.6% annually, closely trailing Asia Pacific at 3.8%. More mature markets such as Europe and North America are expected to grow at slower rates of 2.5% and 2.8%, respectively.
Intra-Africa travel is fastest-growing market globally
The report highlights intra-Africa travel as the fastest-growing market globally, with projected annual growth of 4.9%. Other high-growth corridors include Africa–Asia Pacific (4.5%) and Africa–North America (3.8%), underlining the importance of strengthening aviation infrastructure and improving regulatory frameworks across developing regions.
Despite the positive outlook, IATA notes that the aviation industry is still feeling the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous crises, the pandemic created a structural shift in demand, with global air traffic not expected to fully return to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory by 2050.
Air travel is gradually moderating
At the same time, growth in air travel is gradually moderating. Historical data shows global demand grew at 6.1% annually between 1972 and 1998, slowing to 4.5% between 1998 and 2024. The projected 3.1% growth rate through to 2050 reflects increasing market maturity rather than declining demand.
IATA said its projections are based on extensive global data, including economic indicators, population trends and aviation capacity, providing a reliable framework for long-term planning across the industry.
