South Africa’s fuel supply remains stable despite rising tensions in the Middle East, but motorists should brace for possible price increases from April as global oil markets react to instability around the Strait of Hormuz.
In a statement released on Tuesday night, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said it was closely watching international developments while working with oil companies to safeguard the country’s fuel supply.
Department spokesperson Lerato Ntsoko said authorities remained in close contact with the industry as geopolitical tensions continue to rattle global energy markets.
“The Department remains in continuous contact with oil companies operating in the country to ensure the stability and security of fuel supply while closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on global oil markets and fuel prices,” Ntsoko said.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route linking the Persian Gulf to global markets, transports about a fifth of the world’s oil exports. Any disruption in the area can quickly send crude oil prices climbing, with countries dependent on imports feeling the pressure at the pump.
No need to panic
In its statement, the petroleum authorities sought to calm fears about possible shortages, saying the country’s fuel security measures remain intact.
“The Department wishes to assure the public that there is currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa,” she said.
South Africa’s refining capacity has declined in recent years after several facilities closed, increasing reliance on imported fuel. However, Ntsoko said the country still has key production infrastructure supporting supply.
“South Africa currently has two operational crude oil refineries, namely NATREF and Astron Energy, in addition to the Sasol Secunda coal-to-liquids plant, which continues to play a critical role in domestic fuel production,” she said.
These facilities rely on crude oil imports sourced largely from West Africa and other countries across the African continent.
The Astron Energy refinery is currently undergoing a planned maintenance shutdown, but Ntsoko said measures were in place to prevent any disruption to local fuel availability.
“As part of standard operational planning, the company has secured sufficient fuel imports to cover supply requirements during this maintenance period,” she said.
Fuel price spike
While supply remains stable, the continued rise in global crude oil prices is expected to filter through to South African motorists in the coming weeks.
“Unfortunately, the continued rise in international crude oil prices is expected to result in higher fuel prices at the pump from April 2026,” Ntsoko said.
“The Department will continue to monitor the situation closely, and further updates will be provided ahead of the official April fuel price adjustments.”
SAA on alert
Meanwhile, South African Airways said it is also closely monitoring global developments but does not anticipate immediate disruptions to its operations.
The national carrier said South Africa’s aviation fuel supply chain remains resilient due to multiple supply channels, including domestic refining capacity and established import infrastructure.
SAA group chief executive John Lamola said the airline was working proactively with suppliers and industry partners to ensure stability.
“Geopolitical developments can influence global oil prices and aviation logistics, and the airline industry is accustomed to planning for such uncertainties,” Lamola said.
“At SAA, we work proactively with fuel suppliers, airports, and industry partners to safeguard operational continuity.”
He said the airline had sufficient fuel arrangements in place to maintain its flight schedule and would continue prioritising passenger reliability and competitive fares despite global market pressures.
Threat to GDP
Economist Mandla Maleka said one of the most important development of soaring oil prices from external shock basis is whether the fuel price shock is sustainable or not.
“Back in 2008, when crude rose to $130 per barrel, we were paying nearly R11 per litre. There’s no escaping the fact that should crude oil prices sustainably trade at above $110 per barrel, R25 a litre of domestic fuel could be a new normal. Should the crude oil price rise to near $130 and above (Qatar has already penciled in that possibility), then R30 a litre is not an impossibility,” said Maleka.
Maleka said if crude prices are sustained above $90/100, this could shave off significant GDP in most countries, though only benefiting oil producing countries.
“Our GDP is expected to be at 1.6% this year. That could be reversed with a possible 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points shaved from expected GDP. One thing is certain: the longer the war, the more uncertain the future. In disguise, commodities could be lifted, and that could be a saving grace for commodity-producing nations, including SA. Gold price resilience is a case in point, and that could limit damage on the currency and thus on all things dependent on currency,” said Maleka.
Additional reporting by Mpho Sibanyoni
