Let me be very clear. This two-week ceasefire is not the end of this war. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot be trusted, as they have so aptly demonstrated over the last few months. In the end, Israel is not interested in peace with Iran; they want to see a failed state just like Iraq, Syria, Libya, among others in the region.
Israel and the war criminal Netanyahu will be the spoilers in this short-lived arrangement, and Trump won’t be able to stop Israel. In short, unless Trump begins to exert the necessary pressure on Netanyahu and tell him to toe the line, we won’t see an end of this war anytime soon.
Nevertheless, Iran is listening to its allies, in no small measure, China, and has opted for a cessation of hostilities for now. Though I am certain they are keeping their fingers firmly on the trigger. Once bitten, twice shy.
Now, when looking at what is needed to project power, and in analysing what exactly went wrong for the US in this 40-day war, one must assess the following three critical things:
Institutions: When you opt to ignore international institutions such as the UN, you begin to fall prey to disorder and chaos. Trump ignored Nato and opted for this illegal act of aggression as a war of choice. He further chose to ignore his own intelligence services and the Pentagon as they told him a number of truths. This will be a war resulting in disaster. Iran poses no imminent threat to the US. Iran is nowhere near developing a nuclear bomb.
International law: You uphold the law, or the entire system comes crashing down. To think that when it’s all said and done, and you finally have had your fill of “might is right” policies all over the globe, you will simply return to a rules-based order where international law is yet again adhered to, is fanciful and naive in the extreme. In other words, a fool’s errant.
Allies: to project power you need to cultivate your allies, not alienate them and certainly not threaten them. Tariffs, skewed trade agreements, wanting to annex Greenland and forcing them to increase their proportion of spend on their own security. And now, tell them to go and get their own oil from the Persian Gulf after you, the US, made it a dangerous zone.
These three elements are what project power and Trump has undermined all three at his own peril.
In the end, Trump had to choose between humiliation and exhaustion. A global market that was going into freespin and a resilient people not prepared to give up their sovereignty and freedoms.
This war was a comprehensive strategic defeat for the US. The empire status and global dominance of the land of the free and the home of the brave are over.
Trump and Hegseth don’t realise it yet, but they are responsible for the end of the American Empire. The petrodollar’s time and power are also coming to an end. And with this diminished military capability that Iran has now exposed, this projection of military might be also coming to an abrupt end globally.
It has been a strategic defeat for the US due to the non-achievement of the war objectives. No regime change. No halting of enrichment. No opening of the Strait of Hormuz the land of the free and the home of the brave must accept its dominance was made weak by time and fate.
- Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ
- Let me be very clear.
- This two-week ceasefire is not the end of this war.
- US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cannot be trusted, as they have so aptly demonstrated over the last few months.
- In the end, Israel is not interested in peace with Iran; they want to see a failed state just like Iraq, Syria, Libya, among others in the region.
- Israel and the war criminal Netanyahu will be the spoilers in this short-lived arrangement, and Trump won’t be able to stop Israel.
