The South African Weather Service has urged caution following forecasts showing that the festive season will experience mixed weather conditions across the country.
The forecast was outlined during a weather service’s media briefing hosted by the National Press Club at Court Classique Hotel in Pretoria on Thursday, where the latest Seasonal Climate Outlook for the 2025/2026 summer season was presented.
Senior forecaster Jacqueline Modika said they were predicting wet weather conditions, especially in the afternoons.
“Looking ahead to the festive season, including Christmas and the New Year period, the South African Weather Service expects partly cloudy and warm-to-cool conditions across much of the country,” Modika said.
“Isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers are anticipated mainly over the central and eastern parts of South Africa.
“Thunderstorm activity is expected to occur primarily in the afternoons, although periods of increased moisture may result in morning showers in some areas.
“Much of the rainfall during this period will be associated with afternoon and evening thundershowers, which may at times be accompanied by heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds.”
The outlook, covering the period from December to April, shows a transition towards a weak La Niña state.
La Niña refers to a climate pattern where the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal, changing global wind and weather patterns.
Above-normal rainfall predicted
In South Africa, she said, this typically brings above-normal summer rainfall to the northeastern parts of the country, including Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as parts of North West and the Free State.
Climate model predictions indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern regions, particularly in the northeastern summer rainfall areas.
These wetter-than-usual conditions are consistent with typical La Niña impacts and are expected to continue into mid-to-late summer.
Modika stated that most parts of the country should experience above-normal minimum temperatures.
Daytime maximum temperatures are likely to be below normal in the northeastern regions due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, while above-normal maximum temperatures are expected in parts of the southwestern regions.
From a disaster risk reduction perspective, the expected rainfall could benefit water resources and agriculture.
However, she warned it also raises the risk of localised flooding, especially in flood-prone areas, informal settlements, and regions with poor drainage.
Weather service urges for caution
Communities are urged to remain vigilant during periods of persistent or intense rainfall.
“The public is strongly urged to take weather warnings seriously, as they play a critical role in reducing the risk of injury, loss of life, or property damage.
“It is of utmost importance for the public, particularly vulnerable communities, to regularly consult credible weather forecasts and warning sources for developments and take appropriate action as part of their daily routine.
“Such sources include radio, television, the weather service website, and social media platforms. Recent history has shown that this can be a critical decision.
Residents are encouraged to seek shelter when thunderstorms approach, move vehicles under cover where possible, avoid driving through flooded roads, report fallen trees or flooding to municipal authorities, avoid crossing flooded bridges, stay informed through the official weather service’s updates, and ensure festive travel plans take changing weather conditions into account.
