Oscar’s Musings
In 1965, the Suez Crisis was a defining “moment” for the UK, marking the end of its status as a top-tier global superpower. Britain thought at the time it would simply march in and set these Egyptians right. The Brits had to leave with their tails between their legs in a humiliating fashion.
It was the end of their dominance globally. We will see, I think, the same withdrawal or walk of shame from Iran by President Donald Trump and his mightiest war machine the world has ever known.
Naturally, Trump and his ilk will attempt to claim victory; after all, they did kill the supreme leader of Iran, and they did significantly degrade the Iranian military capacity: they severely decimated its navy, and its air force and key infrastructure facilities were destroyed.
But here’s the nub: there has been no regime change in Iran, and the world economy is in complete turmoil. Regardless of the “spin” narratives from the Trump administration, they wanted to see a capitulated Iran, a decapitated leadership and an implosion of Iranian society, which would have brought about regime change and a more friendly government towards the US and, finally, cemented the hegemonic dominance of Israel in the region. These objectives, we can agree, were not achieved; hence the war effort was a failure, period.
When one looks at the overall military strategy employed by Iran and its leadership, one must admire their resolve and military prowess. They knew that they did not stand a chance toe-to-toe against the US military. With Israel concentrating on one side and the US attacking from another, Iran knew it would not be able to defeat these armies. But they prepared their asymmetric war plan in a very different manner.
Within less than an hour after the first strike by the US, assassinating the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was in his office and not hidden in a bunker, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps responded with overwhelming force. The response sent shockwaves throughout the region because Iran not only fired on US ships in the region and Israel, but a barrage of missiles was fired towards the entire region.
Iran hit almost all its neighbours that host US military bases. With overwhelming force, Iran destroyed strategic radar facilities, three of which rendered the US blind in the region. The US now has to bring in similar systems from South Korea, including air defence systems meant to protect South Korea against their northern enemy.
And so, a shock and awe “little excursion” in Iran has turned into the most miscalculated consequential decision of the Trump administration. The world knows it, the region knows it; let’s hope at some point in time Trump, Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio will admit it.
At the moment, they have run out of options; there exists no obvious off-ramp, and Iran is in no mood to repeat the mistake of last June, when they stupidly agreed to a ceasefire only to allow Israel and the US to rearm and go at it again. Not this time. Iran indicates there will be no surrender, and they are not prepared to “talk” to Trump.
This is a clear indication that the next round of negotiation will have to involve countries such as Russia and China, or not at all. They will not be lulled into another lie and tactic to expose their leadership for them to be assassinated again. The objective for Iran is to continue to inflict as much pain as possible on the global economy by keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed.
So, where does all this lead to, and how will we see resolution on this war of choice? The idea of a greater Israel is dead in the water for now and in fact Zionism is rapidly coming to an end both in Israel and the US. Israel is not a safe haven for Jews any longer; in fact, I predict that after this war, it will only be the settler Jewish communities that will remain there. All others will leave for safer havens. And because of this phenomenon, Israel will become more nationalistic, more religiously fanatical, and spew more hate toward the Palestinian people.
In short, Israel’s days are numbered as the world increasingly turns away from this settler colonial apartheid state, which commits genocide and endangers Israelis with their forever wars.
Netanyahu will lose the next elections in Israel later this year and face prison time due to his illegal activities.
As for South Africa, if you thought we were sufficiently far away from this conflict, please think again. Trump and Netanyahu, together with our own Zionists here at home, are not done with us yet. Frustrated and angry for not winning the war they are going to be dead set on exacting revenge on all those they perceived to be allied with Iran, Russia and China.
Brace yourselves… more punitive action is coming our way from the US. Its new ambassador, Leo Brent Bozell, is just getting warmed up. Sanctions will follow soon on political parties and political figures. Bank accounts will be frozen. I suggest you guys make alternative plans soonest. We are not exceptional guys! We must prepare.
- Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ
