The ANC this week took a nonchalant stance on the possible rearrest of former president Jacob Zuma.
This was possibly explained by information from the security cluster that Zuma no longer commands enough influence among his supporters to start another unrest.
Even though public unrest followed Zuma’s incarceration in parts of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng two years ago, ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula yesterday refrained from commenting on whether there was any political management strategy in place to maintain peace and stability across the country.
On the other end, Zuma’s eldest son, Edward Zuma, suggested that the family was also taking a wait-and-see approach as the final decision on whether or not the former statesman has served his sentence in full rested with the correctional services department.
The department said in a statement on Friday that it was studying the judgment. “DCS is seeking legal advice and will comment further in due course,” said spokesperson Singabakho Nxumalo.
According to government officials in the security cluster, the political landscape has changed drastically from the then-existing pro-Zuma sentiment two years ago. “Anyone who wants to start fires will find it difficult to mobilise society,” said an insider.
The dominant analysis was that the Zuma-backers known as Radical Economic Transformation forces in the ANC had become weaker due to their lack of access to state resources. This saw the group’s cohesion weaken, said a source, adding that decisions by prominent leaders to start their own political formations aggravated the situation.
The KwaZulu-Natal ANC’s commitment to Zuma was cited in intelligence circles as a key factor.
This was because the new leadership collective was seemingly shifting further away from Zuma than last year when they were elected into office.
“They also have too many cases to fight in court, so the machinery that drove this thing in the past is no longer strong,” said the official, adding that even the “Zulu nationalism” that enabled the 2021 unrest to spread across Gauteng and KZN had diminished.
“Lots of people lost their jobs the last time, and the impact has been massive due to the disinvestment in KZN. And more recently, the area has been hit by a string of natural disasters, which makes it unlikely for anyone to have an appetite to protest”.
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