Eastern Cape premier and ANC provincial chairperson Oscar Mabuyane’s lobbyists are beaming with confidence that his march towards a third term will be a “walk in the park” when the former liberation movement convenes its conference in the self-proclaimed “home of legends” province next weekend.
Mabuyane is set to lock horns with his former ally, provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi, at the East London ICC as the conference starts on March 27 and ends on the 29th.
Despite protestations by Ngcukayitobi of foul play in processes building up to the conference, Mabuyane’s camp insists that these are signs of a man who is refusing to accept his imminent defeat.
Ngcukayitobi has written to ANC national officials, claiming widespread irregularities in build-up processes and shouting for the President Cyril Ramaphosa-led top seven to intervene.
His own camp argues that Ngcukayitobi’s gutsy move is a little too late and likely to be ignored by the national officials due to meet tomorrow.
Mabuyane’s forces are adamant that the letter is tantamount to the proverbial last kick of a dying horse.
The contest between the two men who served two terms together until their recent fallout has bigger implications on a national scale in the ANC.
This is because the winner, especially if it is Mabuyane, is likely to be the kingmaker in the high-stakes ANC national elective conference in December 2027. That is where the ANC will elect a successor for its current leader, Ramaphosa, who is exiting the ANC top post after serving two terms.
Mabuyane, because of his strength in his own province, stands in pole position to be the potential swing vote that will decide who wins the presidential race.
The leading contenders in the race are Ramaphosa’s deputy Paul Mashatile, secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, National Assembly speaker Thoko Didiza and CAF president Patrice Motsepe.
A victory for Mabuyane would be unwelcome news for Mashatile, while it might be good news for the trio of Mbalula, Didiza and Motsepe, who may emerge as successful presidential candidates aided by Mabuyane delivering the EC voting bloc.
Mabuyane’s name is appearing in slates that include all three, where he is either touted for deputy president or secretary general. The powerful platinum group lobby inside the ANC, which delivered Ramaphosa’s second term, has thrown its weight behind Didiza in what is believed to be a decoy for Motsepe, with Mabuyane tipped to become deputy president.
Back to the provincial conference, Mabuyane’s camp appears to have consolidated all regions in the province except for OR Tambo, which is home to Ngcukayitobi.
“Mabuyane is winning that thing (provincial conference) with ease. All the regions are strongly backing him, with the only serious division in OR Tambo, but even there we have a sizeable share,” said a regional leader who supports the premier.
These sentiments are backed by one of the most influential ANC leaders in the province, who said it was going to be a “walk in the park” for Mabuyane.
The insider said Ngcukayitobi never had a serious and structured campaign strong enough to dislodge a cunning political operator like Mabuyane.
“That time Ngcukayitobi was the provincial secretary; how could he be losing this badly?
“He never had a serious campaign when he knew Mabuyane had incredible stamina for a political fight and would never back down. This is going to be Mabuyane’s easiest victory because he was given a run for his money in the first-term and second-term conferences,” said the senior leader with intimate knowledge of Eastern Cape dynamics.
Ngcukayitobi’s camp is now placing its hope on external intervention to buy them time to recover lost ground in what they claim was their candidate’s snail’s pace to take off the mark and fight his opponent directly.
His letter this week calling for intervention from national officials was one such manoeuvre. “That letter is like a missile in the Iran versus the US and Israel war, but do we really have time? This type of aggression is what Ngcuka (Ngcukayitobi) should have done long ago because it shows Mabuyane that we are at war, which we have never shown before, but unfortunately, we have a week to conference,” said the lobbyist.
“If the national officials do not heed the issues of manipulation raised in Ngcuka’s letter and postpone the conference, it might be too late for us because the reality is that Mabuyane has the numbers as things stand.”
Ngcukayitobi’s people claim Mabuyane’s commanding leap in the numbers game is unfair because there are too many disputes, which they hope to use as a fightback to halt the conference.
But Mabuyane’s core are adamant that the 70% of branches threshold convened successful branch general meetings and that there is no reason for the conference not to proceed.
The final verification report signed by Mbalula this week reveals that 554 branches have been verified for the provincial conference and that 499 branches constitute the 70% threshold.
Mabuyane’s slate includes his current deputy, finance MEC Mlungisi Mvoko, who is vying to retain his post, while Helen Sauls-August is hoping to graduate to replace Ngcukayitobi, with Lusanda Sizani standing to deputise her, and OR Tambo regional chair Mesuli Ngqondwana is contesting for the purse of the organisation in the province.
Ngcukayitobi’s lineup includes education MEC Fundile Gade, aiming for deputy provincial chair, with former Nelson Mandela Bay regional secretary contesting for provincial secretary, with PEC member Nanziwe Rulashe seeking to deputise him, and the incumbent provincial treasurer hoping for a second term.
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