Two things are for sure after the November 4 local government elections: the ANC is dying a slow and painful death while the DA is making inroads into black communities that were strongholds of the former liberation movement since 1994.
And all of this can be blamed on the ANC itself, chiefly resulting from the decision it took following the 2024 national and provincial elections.
The choice to go to bed with the DA in the GNU is proving to be the most fatal political move and gross miscalculation the ANC has ever committed.
That decision, if anything, is the gift that keeps on giving to the DA, which is now on the rise in black communities, especially in townships and black middle-class constituencies.
The DA has previously tried to lure the black vote when Helen Zille was at the helm of the party by using black tokens as leaders, a strategy that backfired spectacularly.
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That was until the formation of the GNU, which, wittingly or unwittingly, was the ANC telling its voters that “there is nothing wrong with the DA”, after years of fingering the same formation as a “white party advancing white interests”.
It therefore comes as no surprise that black constituencies are now directly voting for the DA, thanks to ANC endorsement of the blue party via the GNU.
The ANC’s formation of an alliance with a DA that openly rejects transformative policies such as BEE, NHI, Expropriation Act and BELA, was Christmas coming early for the blue party.
GNU a one-sided marriage favouring DA
The GNU marriage created a new political narrative, one that is very problematic for the ANC, which effectively means that a vote for the ANC is tantamount to voting for the DA and vice versa.
Again, this made it acceptable and easy for the mind of the black voter to throw their support behind the DA, which is further bolstered by running an effective propaganda and marketing election machinery thanks to its fat bank account.
The black votes for the DA are thus not a function of election rigging. They are as real as climate change, despite die-hard sceptics who have suggested possible manipulation.
The ANC’s own party agents and observers of the counting have confirmed that the DA support in black communities is indeed real and genuine.
As things stand, it does not seem that there is a chance of ever bouncing back for the ANC, if their political choice of flirting with the DA continues.
It appears the same GNU arrangement might be on the cards after these municipal polls where it appears that the majority of the metro and district municipalities will be hung.
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If the ANC chooses the DA again, it might well be the final nail in its political coffin ahead of the 2029 national and provincial elections where the possibility of a head of state from DA ranks is not a far-fetched prediction.
ANC leaders might try all sorts of excuses to justify the politically costly decision to fall for DA trickery, they had other choices that might have potentially benefitted them more and probably annihilate its splinters.
ANC’s lost opportunity to claw back support from its splinters
The argument that going to bed with MKP and/or EFF in the aftermath of the 2024 polls would have hollowed out the ANC is flawed in every respect.
If anything, that would have been the strategic decision to take and the ANC would probably be on the rise again, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, which is now firmly an ANC stronghold.
Even with the EFF, which is losing support since getting the opportunity to govern in coalition in some municipalities, giving them a bigger stake in state power would potentially push them to immediate oblivion.
Given the internal instability the MKP has proven since its formation in December 2023 with the chopping and changing of leaders, imagine what would have been of the Jacob Zuma-led party had ANC allowed them to govern KZN after 2024 polls.
The party’s instability would have certainly been the order of the day in government too and a repellent to its voters, who in any event are originally ANC supporters.
The ANC would have capitalized on same to decampaign the green army which they currently cannot delegitimise politically because the MK Party has not been in government.
In any event, a parent (ANC) has a better chance of neutralizing their own children (MKP and EFF) who left merely to spite them and prove a point than a hostile stranger (DA) who poses as an ally while having ill-intentions to poison them to death.
The ANC has an opportunity to correct its 2024 mistakes but if one’s observation of the direction in which the political wind is blowing is anything to go by, Nelson Mandela’s party is likely to repeat the catastrophic political error.
And should history repeat itself this time as it does more often than not, the ANC might dwindle into insignificance in 2029 in so bad a way that its apparent next saviour, billionaire Patrice Motsepe, might just stand for Union Buildings outside the black, green and gold colours as an independent and get the nod, fully endorsed by the DA, which by then would most likely be the largest party in South Africa.
- The ANC's decision to join a Government of National Unity (GNU) with the DA after the 2024 elections is cited as a major factor in its declining support, particularly in black communities.
- The DA has gained significant inroads in black townships and middle-class areas, benefiting from the ANC's endorsement through the GNU.
- The ANC-DA alliance is problematic because the DA opposes key ANC policies such as BEE, NHI, Expropriation Act, and BELA, yet the GNU makes voting for the ANC or DA effectively interchangeable.
- Alternative coalitions with the MKP and/or EFF after 2024 were argued to be more beneficial for the ANC to regain support, especially in KwaZulu-Natal.
- If the ANC repeats the GNU alliance with the DA post-2024 municipal polls, it may face political irrelevance by the 2029 elections, potentially leading to a DA-backed independent candidate like Patrice Motsepe succeeding in national leadership.
