Let us assume that the campaigns the US is engaged in have been orchestrated and are being directed by the intelligence organs in America, Israel and the UK and not necessarily by their respective governments. I say this because it is clear to me that false and deliberate intel is being provided; otherwise, how does one explain the continuous strategic blunders?
Let’s begin with the strategy for Ukraine, which, by the way, started as far back as 2008, when Nato announced in Belarus its intention to incorporate Ukraine into its membership. That’s when the campaign was set in motion, which ultimately led to the 2014 coup in Kiev. We now know how the campaign has played out and how Vladimir Putin’s Russia is winning this war, contrary to the Western media’s pin-doctoring.
US and British intelligence, the CIA and MI6 in particular, have been at the forefront of activities on the ground in Ukraine from the beginning.
As Seymour Hirsch, the US investigative journalist and political writer told us, it is they who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline, hence the Danish refusal to make available their findings from an investigation conducted into this act of terrorism.
In the final analysis, I can confidently say Russia will be victorious in the war.
Ukraine will come to the negotiating table weak and will agree to territorial losses and much more. No Nato membership, no rearming of its military and perhaps also no ascendancy to EU membership. It will be a brutal settlement for Ukraine.
And just when we thought that was a serious strategic defeat for the big boys, they entered into another campaign by illegally attacking Iran. It was supposed to have been swift, possibly only 10 days or so; then the country would implode.
Protest action started on the ground in Tehran because of the inflation and monetary pressures Iranians experienced. The CIA and Mossad saw a gap and took it. They quickly infiltrated the protesters and began what they do well all over the world — caused an insurrection.
But the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and local security apparatus would have nothing of it.
They brutally suppressed the protests and quelled the protest action.
The intelligence organs did not stop there. They convinced their respective governments that a decapitation strike on the leadership of Iran would leave the rest of the state without direction.
The leaders agreed and the supreme leader of Iran and some military top brass were instantly bombed and killed. This set the scene for the implosion of the Iranian state as we know it.
But they waited and waited. Nothing happened. Instead, within minutes of the killings, the IRGC retaliated and bombed strategic targets in Israel and perhaps unexpectedly, some of the Gulf States too.
American military bases were destroyed and numerous aircraft shot down, with many US soldiers dead. Israel lies in ruins and the Gulf States are unable to export their most valuable asset, oil, because the Strait of Hormuz is shut.
What intelligence agencies said would last two to three weeks has entered its 100th day and the fighting has resumed.
Donald Trump, being the narcissist and vain person he is, cannot bring himself to admit strategic defeat.
More bombings will follow in both directions and more harm to the global economy will ensue. Americans will begin to share the pain of the world economy as the midterm elections loom large on the horizon. Iran knows it has only to survive and hold on until the end of the year. That it will do.
Just as in the case of Ukraine, ultimately negotiations are going to ensue and America and Israel will be the losers in the negotiations. Iran will continue to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz and possibly demand a toll fee for all future oil and gas tankers passing through.
Iran will force Israel to abandon its war aims in Lebanon and possibly Gaza and the West Bank. To not comply would be folly on the part of the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu’s regime because the US is under enormous pressure not to support Israel in the genocide of Palestinians.
- Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ.
- The author argues that intelligence agencies from the US, Israel, and the UK are orchestrating campaigns with flawed strategies, leading to continuous blunders in global conflicts.
- The Ukraine conflict began around 2008 with NATO's intent to include Ukraine, resulting in the 2014 Kiev coup; despite Western media narratives, Russia is portrayed as winning.
- US and British intelligence are implicated in covert operations such as the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, and Ukraine is expected to face a harsh settlement with territorial losses and no NATO or EU membership.
- A failed covert campaign against Iran involved inflaming protests, a decapitation strike on leadership, and subsequent Iranian retaliation that severely damaged Israel, US bases, and Gulf States, disrupting global oil exports.
- The author predicts ongoing conflict with economic repercussions, but ultimately Iran will emerge as a negotiating power controlling the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Israel and the US to abandon certain war aims.
