The El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean is continuing to strengthen and could become the most powerful in the past 150 years, says the China Meteorological Administration.
Observations from the CMA’s national climate center show that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reached the threshold for El Nino conditions in May, and sea surface temperatures in the region continued to rise in June. Since July, it has been under monitoring as a potential strong El Nino event, and the probability of it developing into a super El Nino is increasing.
Forecasts indicate that the event is likely to persist until at least next spring, with the overall duration close to the historical average for El Nino events — around 10 to 11 months.
A global climate amplifier
El Nino is regarded as a global climate “amplifier” that changes the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall. Through interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, a strong El Nino can alter global atmospheric circulation, therefore reshaping seasonal climate patterns across different regions.
Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Centre, says historical data shows that El Nino affects China’s climate differently at each stage of its development.
During the developing phase in summer, more typhoons are likely to form over the north-western Pacific, which tend to be stronger, originate farther to the south-east and make landfall in China with stronger intensity. They may bring stronger wind and rainfall in China’s south-eastern and southern coastal regions, alongside the possibility of typhoons tracking northward.
When El Nino reaches its peak in autumn and winter, southern China typically receives significantly more precipitation. As the event weakens during the following spring and summer, the Yangtze River Basin and areas south of the river face a high risk of flooding.
2027 may be the hottest year
According to the World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2026-2035), released in May, global average temperatures will probably remain at or near record levels over the next five years.
“It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, ” the report says.
Based on historical data and experts’ analysis, the effects of a strong El Nino often peaks in the year after the event, Chen says.
Due to a delay in the ocean’s impact on the atmosphere, the full impact on global temperatures usually becomes apparent six months to a year after El Nino reaches its maximum intensity, Chen adds.
- The El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean is intensifying and may become the most powerful in 150 years, according to China's Meteorological Administration.
- Sea surface temperatures reached El Nino thresholds in May and continued rising, with the event expected to last 10-11 months, possibly through next spring.
- A strong El Nino acts as a global climate amplifier, influencing extreme weather such as heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall worldwide.
- In China, El Nino increases typhoon activity in summer and brings more precipitation to southern regions in autumn and winter, raising flood risks in the Yangtze River Basin during spring.
- The World Meteorological Organisation forecasts a high chance one year between 2026-2030 will be the hottest on record, with 2027 possibly the hottest due to El Nino's delayed temperature effects.
Observations from the CMA's national climate center show that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reached the threshold for El Nino conditions in May, and sea surface temperatures in the region continued to rise in June. Since July, it has been under monitoring as a potential strong El Nino event, and the probability of it developing into a super El Nino is increasing.
Forecasts indicate that the event is likely to persist until at least next spring, with the overall duration close to the historical average for El Nino events — around 10 to 11 months.
El Nino is regarded as a global climate "amplifier" that changes the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall.
Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Centre, says historical data shows that El Nino affects China's climate differently at each stage of its development.
When El Nino reaches its peak in autumn and winter, southern China typically receives significantly more precipitation. As the event weakens during the following spring and summer, the
"It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, " the report says.
Based on historical data and experts' analysis, the effects of a strong El Nino often peaks in the year after the event, Chen says.
Due to a delay in the ocean's impact on the atmosphere, the full impact on global temperatures usually becomes apparent six months to a year after El Nino reaches its maximum intensity, Chen adds.
