Global air cargo demand kicked off 2026 on a strong note, rising by 5.6% year-on-year in January, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The industry body reported that total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 5.6% compared to January 2025, while international operations recorded an even stronger 7.2% growth. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), rose by 3.6% globally and by 5.7% for international markets.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the year had started on a “robust” footing, but warned that performance varied significantly across regions.
Performance varied across regions
“Carriers in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Europe all reported faster growth than the global average. In contrast, carriers in the Americas reported aggregate contractions,” Walsh said.
He warned that the resilience of air cargo would continue to face pressure in the months ahead, citing ongoing uncertainty around evolving United States trade policies and renewed hostilities in the Middle East, both of which could weigh heavily on global supply chains.
These issues are expected to dominate discussions at IATA’s upcoming World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru, from 10 to 12 March 2026, where digitalisation and operational efficiency will be key focus areas.
Cautious optimism for air cargo
Several economic indicators point to cautious optimism. Global goods trade expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in December 2025, while jet fuel prices fell by 6.5% in January compared to a year earlier, easing cost pressures for airlines.
At the same time, global manufacturing sentiment strengthened, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbing to 51.8 in January — above the 50-point threshold that signals expansion — marking its highest level in over 18 months. However, the PMI for new export orders remained just below growth territory at 49.9, suggesting industrial recovery remains uneven.
Despite geopolitical headwinds, air cargo’s solid start indicates that global trade flows remain resilient at the beginning of 2026.
