Global air cargo markets came under pressure in March, with demand declining by 4.8% year on year as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted key logistics corridors.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), total demand – measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK) – fell sharply compared to March 2025, while international operations recorded an even steeper drop of 5.5%. Capacity also declined by 4.7%, reflecting reduced activity across major global freight networks.
Instability at major Gulf hubs
IATA director-general Willie Walsh attributed the downturn largely to instability at major Gulf hubs, which play a critical role in connecting global supply chains.
“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East,” Walsh said. He added that the seasonal slowdown following the Lunar New Year also contributed to weaker volumes.
Despite the decline, underlying demand remains resilient. Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year on year in February, extending a 38-month expansion streak, while global goods trade surged by 8% over the same period. Manufacturing sentiment also stayed in growth territory, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index at 51.4, indicating continued expansion.
Concern over rising costs
However, rising costs are emerging as a key concern. Jet fuel prices soared by more than 100% year on year in March, driven by higher crude oil prices and a sharp increase in refining margins. Walsh warned that fuel supply and pricing will be critical factors testing the industry’s resilience in the months ahead.
Regionally, performance varied significantly. Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 5.4% increase in cargo demand, while European carriers posted a 2.2% gain. Latin American airlines also saw modest growth of 1.8%.
Middle Eastern carriers hardest hit
In contrast, Middle Eastern carriers were hardest hit, with demand plunging by 54.3% – the steepest decline globally – alongside a 52.4% drop in capacity.
North American airlines experienced a mild contraction, with demand down 1.2%, while African carriers emerged as the strongest performers, reporting a 7% increase in demand despite a 4.6% reduction in capacity.
Trade lane performance mirrored these regional shifts. Routes linking Africa and Asia led growth, followed by Asia-Europe corridors, while intra-Asia trade remained robust. However, routes connected to the Gulf region were severely affected by the ongoing conflict.
IATA said the ability of air cargo networks to adapt quickly will remain crucial as global supply chains navigate geopolitical tensions, tariffs and operational disruptions in 2026.
- Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% year-on-year in March 2026, with international operations dropping 5.5%, mainly due to Middle East geopolitical tensions disrupting Gulf logistics hubs.
- Capacity declined 4.7%, reflecting reduced activity across key freight networks, especially impacting Middle Eastern carriers with a 54.3% demand drop and a 52.4% capacity fall.
- Despite disruptions, global industrial production grew 3.1% year on year, goods trade surged 8%, and manufacturing sentiment remained positive, indicating resilient underlying demand.
- Rising jet fuel prices (up over 100% year-on-year) driven by crude oil and refining margin increases pose significant cost challenges threatening industry resilience.
- Regional performance varied: Asia-Pacific (+5.4%), Europe (+2.2%), Latin America (+1.8%), and Africa (+7%) saw growth, while North America saw a mild demand decline (-1.2%), and Gulf-related routes were severely affected.
Global air cargo markets came under pressure in March, with demand declining by 4.8% year on year as geopolitical tensions in the
IATA director-general Willie
“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year.
Despite the decline, underlying demand remains resilient. Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year on year in February, extending a 38-month expansion streak, while global goods trade surged by 8% over the same period.
However, rising costs are emerging as a key concern. Jet fuel prices soared by more than 100% year on year in March, driven by higher crude oil prices and a sharp increase in refining margins.
Regionally, performance varied significantly. Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 5.4% increase in cargo demand, while European carriers posted a 2.2% gain. Latin American airlines also saw modest growth of 1.8%.
In contrast,
Trade lane performance mirrored these regional shifts. Routes linking Africa and Asia led growth, followed by Asia-Europe corridors, while intra-Asia trade remained robust. However, routes connected to the Gulf region were severely affected by the ongoing conflict.
IATA said the ability of air cargo networks to adapt quickly will remain crucial as global supply chains navigate geopolitical tensions, tariffs and operational disruptions in 2026.
