As El Niño conditions are expected to persist into 2027, Western Cape wine producers are being urged to prepare for rising temperatures, increasing pressure on water resources and a longer fire-risk season.
While El Niño is often associated with hot, dry conditions across South Africa, its effects on the Western Cape require a more nuanced approach because the region receives most of its rainfall during winter.
Dr Tara Southey, founder and CEO of TerraClim, says wine producers should focus on how heat, water availability and changing weather patterns affect individual vineyards rather than rely on national forecasts alone.
“We need to be careful not to apply a national ‘hot and dry’ narrative directly to the wine regions,” she says.
For growers, the concern is not simply how much rain falls, but how much water remains available as temperatures rise and vines enter their summer growing season.
Southey says conditions from previous seasons also matter, as heat and water stress can affect vine health, production and the following season’s growth.
Independent viticulturist Marko Roux advises farmers to assess their water supplies early, preserve soil moisture and identify vulnerable vineyard blocks before conditions deteriorate.
“Should the conditions improve later in the season, a farmer can always back down on water-scarce practices, but it does not work the other way around,” he says.
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Roux cautions against over-irrigating shallow soils, recommending that growers combine soil-moisture measurements with regular inspections of their vineyards. Water should also be allocated strategically during critical stages of vine development.
Heat management is another priority. Decisions about leaf cover and canopy management made in spring can influence how exposed grape bunches are to intense summer temperatures.
In hot, dry conditions, exposed grapes face a greater risk of sunburn, while accelerated ripening can affect acidity, freshness and flavour balance. Roux therefore recommends careful canopy management and regular grape sampling when determining harvest dates.
Fire risk adds to seasonal pressure
The approaching summer also brings concerns about wildfires, following the severe 2025/26 fire season. The Western Cape is preparing for an extended high-risk period from October to May.
Southey says hotter days, longer gaps between meaningful rainfall and changing wind conditions can cause vegetation to dry out earlier and remain dry for longer.
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Roux advises wine farms to inspect access roads, maintain appropriate vegetation management, ensure firefighting equipment can reach water refill points and make sure staff understand emergency procedures.
He also encourages producers to join their local Fire Protection Association and prepare for emergency firefighting costs before a fire breaks out.
For Southey, resilience begins with understanding the risks at vineyard level and using climate information to make important decisions sooner.
“Better data does not necessarily mean making more decisions,” she says. “Often it means making the important decisions earlier.”
- As El Niño conditions are expected to persist into 2027, Western Cape wine producers are being urged to prepare for rising temperatures, increasing pressure on water resources and a longer fire-risk season.
- While El Niño is often associated with hot, dry conditions across South Africa, its effects on the Western Cape require a more nuanced approach because the region receives most of its rainfall during winter.
- Dr Tara Southey, founder and CEO of TerraClim, says wine producers should focus on how heat, water availability and changing weather patterns affect individual vineyards rather than rely on national forecasts alone.
- For growers, the concern is not simply how much rain falls, but how much water remains available as temperatures rise and vines enter their summer growing season.
