The fight for control of the ANC’s provinces – the launchpad for national leadership and the currency of influence ahead of December 2027 – is now in full swing, with at least four provinces headed for high-stakes conferences this year.
With provincial outcomes set to shape nominations for the ANC’s next top leadership, bruising contests are lining up in key battlegrounds, including Gauteng, Limpopo, the Eastern Cape and North West, where rival camps are already drawing battle lines for positions that could determine who emerges as ANC president in December next year.
In Gauteng, Premier Panyaza Lesufi is set to go toe-to-toe with Health MEC Nomantu Nkomo-Ralehoko for provincial chairperson.
For provincial secretary, long-time allies Thembinkosi “TK” Nciza and finance MEC Lebogang Maile will lock horns, with Tshwane regional chairperson Bonzo Modise joining the fray, as is Ezra Letsoalo.
With Lesufi and Nkomo-Ralehoko, it’s a question of no permanent friends after the duo had run under the same slate in the previous provincial conference in 2022.
Their supporters are confident that each candidate is strong enough to upstage the other. A win for Lesufi might see the man nominated for a position among the national officials, while a victory for Nkomo-Ralehoko might be a major boost for ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula’s ANC presidential bid.
In the race for the administration office of the ANC in the continent’s economic hub, the contestation between Nciza and Maile has many worried.
Those close to the situation have, however, revealed that one of the two men might move to contest for deputy provincial chairperson.
“They will not contest each other; we are working on it. One will move to contest for deputy chair, but as things stand, both of them do not want to move, but we will eventually overcome,” said a provincial leader part of this core, which is backing Lesufi for provincial chairmanship.
“Branches feel that TK (Nciza) has unfinished work as provincial secretary after they were disbanded before the end of the term, so he must go back to finish his job, which means Lebza (Maile) is likely to be the one that ultimately moves, but the two cannot be seen contesting each other.”
In the Eastern Cape, incumbent ANC provincial chairperson Oscar Mabuyane is vying for a third term against his current provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi in what has been described as a “blood on the floor” contest.
Mabuyane, as the incumbent who is in charge of the province’s state machinery, is the favourite to emerge victorious.
For provincial secretary in the self-proclaimed “home of legends” province, Chris Hani regional chairperson Lusanda Sizani will take on PEC member Loyiso Magqashela, with Amathole regional strongman Teris Ntutu another hopeful for the powerful post that gives control over municipalities.
But Sizani might have a mountain to climb and become an easy target for decampaigning because he and Mabuyane come from the same region.
“That is not an argument that will hold because Mabuyane is going to be national next year, so Chris Hani will be left with one person in the national officials, so if we do not field Lusanda (Sizani), we will be naked when Mabuyane becomes deputy president,” said a Mabuyane chief lobbyist.
“Mabuyane is definitely going to win, no question about it, and we are now firming up who will become deputy provincial chairperson, and we will move to crush the enemy.”
Along the Limpopo River, tensions are high over the imminent contestation between Premier Phophi Ramathuba and Polokwane executive mayor John Mpe for provincial chairperson.
There is fear that the toxicity of this contest might collapse the ANC in this province, which, together with the Eastern Cape, remains an ANC stronghold.
National leaders whose ancestry is in Limpopo are working around the clock, trying to bring temperatures down, with talk of the two standing down for a compromise candidate being another option on the table.
The compromise candidate, our deep throats whispered, is current provincial secretary Reuben Vhamusanda Madadzhe. But as things stand, Madadzhe is sitting comfortably as the runaway favourite for a second term in his current position, which some say he must focus on.
“Phophi (Ramathuba) and Vhamusanda (Madazhe) will win. The outcomes of regional conferences last year point to this reality, but of course, John (Mpe) will mount a serious contest,” said an ANC NEC member who is aligned to both factions in the province.
The Ramathuba and Madadzhe combination is, however, paralysed by entrenched tribal considerations, with both being of VhaVenda descent.
The dominant tribe in the province, the BaPedi, is apparently having serious issues, which is said to be strengthening Mpe’s bid since he is a Mopedi.
“We cannot have a Venda provincial chairperson and a Venda provincial secretary. That is an anomaly in a province where BaPedi are the majority tribe,” said an Mpe lobbyist.
A winner for Limpopo provincial chairperson will also have a bearing on the national conference next year, but so far, both Mpe and Ramathuba have aligned themselves with Mbalula.
In the North West, provincial chairperson Nono Maloyi is seeking a second term and is bound to collide with Premier Lazarus Mokgosi.
This is while provincial secretary Louis Diremelo will battle it out with current provincial treasurer Sello Lehari.
A win for Maloyi will spell good news for ANC second-in-command Paul Mashatile’s presidential bid, while a Mokgosi victory benefits Mbalula.
The ANC is planning that these provincial conferences must all convene before the end of March before the launch of the local government elections campaign in April ahead of the polls later in the year.
