South Africa’s transition to electric vehicles (EVs) should be viewed as an industrial competitiveness strategy rather than a consumer adoption programme, according to Thanda Sithole, senior economist at WesBank and First National Bank.
In an opinion piece examining the country’s EV White Paper, Sithole argues that the policy’s primary objective is to safeguard South Africa’s automotive manufacturing sector, protect export markets and secure future investment as the global industry accelerates towards new energy vehicles (NEVs).
He says that public debate has largely centred on how quickly South Africans will embrace electric vehicles, while overlooking the White Paper’s broader economic purpose.
South Africa’s automotive industry remains one of the country’s most significant manufacturing sectors and a major contributor to exports and economic growth. The country exported 404 191 vehicles in 2025 – the highest annual export volume since 2007 – underlining the importance of maintaining access to international markets.
This is becoming increasingly important as South Africa’s biggest export destinations, particularly the European Union and the UK, tighten emissions regulations and accelerate the shift towards battery electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles.
Warning over failure to adapt
Sithole warns that failure to adapt could gradually erode South Africa’s export competitiveness as demand for traditional internal combustion engine vehicles declines in key overseas markets. He notes that the challenge extends beyond exports. Global vehicle manufacturers are increasingly allocating future production programmes to countries with clear electrification strategies, supportive policy environments and investment certainty.
Several manufacturers operating in South Africa have already begun investing in factory upgrades, production line modifications and supplier development programmes to prepare for the transition. However, Sithole says long-term policy certainty remains essential because automotive investment decisions are made years in advance.
The automotive sector also supports a vast ecosystem beyond assembly plants, including component manufacturers, logistics companies, dealerships, finance providers and aftermarket businesses. Collectively, these industries support more than 500 000 jobs.
Benefit of processing battery minerals locally
Sithole believes South Africa also has an opportunity to strengthen its position in global EV supply chains by processing more of its abundant battery minerals locally and expanding battery-related manufacturing instead of exporting raw materials.
Globally, electric vehicle adoption continues to gather momentum. EV sales reached 21.2-million units in 2025, led by China, while markets including India, Thailand, Indonesia and Brazil are also accelerating their EV industries through targeted industrial policies.
While domestic EV adoption in South Africa is expected to remain gradual because of affordability constraints, charging infrastructure and electricity costs, Sithole notes that the greater priority is ensuring the country remains an attractive destination for global automotive investment.
He concludes that the EV White Paper should ultimately be measured by its ability to preserve manufacturing jobs, sustain exports and attract future production programmes, rather than by domestic EV sales alone.
- South Africa’s EV transition should be seen as an industrial competitiveness strategy aimed at protecting the automotive manufacturing sector, rather than focusing solely on consumer adoption, says economist Thanda Sithole.
- The EV White Paper’s main goal is to safeguard export markets and attract future investment amid global shifts to new energy vehicles (NEVs), especially due to stricter emissions regulations in key markets like the EU and UK.
- South Africa’s automotive industry is critical to the economy, exporting over 400,000 vehicles in 2025, and risks losing competitiveness if it fails to adapt to global electrification trends.
- Local processing of battery minerals and expansion of battery-related manufacturing present opportunities to enhance South Africa’s role in global EV supply chains.
- Despite slow domestic EV adoption due to cost and infrastructure challenges, the priority is maintaining policy certainty to preserve jobs, sustain exports, and secure future production from global manufacturers.
In an opinion piece examining the country’s EV White Paper,
He says that public debate has largely centred on how quickly
Several manufacturers operating in
Globally, electric vehicle adoption continues to gather momentum. EV sales reached 21.2-million units in 2025, led by China, while markets including
While domestic EV adoption in
He concludes that the EV White Paper should ultimately be measured by its ability to preserve manufacturing jobs, sustain exports and attract future production programmes, rather than by domestic EV sales alone.
