Indlulamithi SA Scenarios was launched in June 2018 as an independent scenario-planning initiative asking what a socially cohesive South Africa could look like by 2030. Its purpose was not to predict the future, but to widen the national conversation, strengthen long-term thinking and connect present choices with future consequences. The first Indlulamithi Barometer was launched in 2019, beginning an annual review of the country against the scenarios – the results thereof informed the decision to develop new scenarios, but with 2035 as the new horizon.
The Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035 are organised around three driving forces: (1) the low-economic growth trap; (2) state capacity and accountability; and (3) internal insecurity threat. These are the forces that yield three possible scenarios. The Hadeda Home Scenario is marked by blame and paralysis. Vulture Culture Scenario features deepened scavenging and institutional decay, while the Weaver Work Scenario is characterised by cooperation to rebuild institutions after significant collapse.
‘A path towards a cooperation nation’
President Cyril Ramaphosa also drew directly on the Indlulamithi futures in his 2024 Opening of Parliament Address, saying that the government of national unity had placed the country on a path towards a “cooperation nation”. As a result, the Medium-Term Development Plan 2024–2029 adopted Weaver Work as government’s preferred scenario. However, this ignores the other two scenarios which could be unfolding. This narrative also neglects the ups and downs of each of the three scenarios. This is the utility of the Barometer!
Even though Eskom reported in August that South Africa had gone 448 consecutive days without loadshedding and gross domestic product grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Weaver Work Scenario, this does not help stop the anger and resentment and this is due to inability of the state to reduce unemployment and crime. Local government sharpens the capacity challenges that exist within the state.
Active citizenship crucial
The Auditor-General’s latest 2024/25 report records only 39 clean audits among 257 municipalities. None of the eight metropolitan municipalities achieved a clean audit, while qualified metro opinions rose from two to five. Metros serve about 24.9-million people and account for more than half of local government expenditure. They are where households and investors encounter water, electricity, roads, planning approvals and waste services. As we head towards the Local Government Elections (LGE), this tier of government is brought to focus. This is where active citizenship matters.
Government carries constitutional responsibilities, but building a viable society cannot be outsourced to the state that is incapable of delivering even the most basic services. Business shapes employment and investment, but we have yet to see evidence of an activist business sector that serves to contribute towards the greater good of our society. Civil society keeps democratic spaces open and power answerable, but with limited resources we have witnessed the erosion of civil society over the years.
What must change today to achieve the desired future?
The Barometer allows society to get an understanding of which of the scenarios is emerging and which of the key drivers have the strongest pull. These then provide stakeholders with research-based evidence to frame their responses or mitigation strategies in collaboration with each other. Hadeda Home, Vulture Culture and Weaver Work can coexist, sometimes within the same institution. What matters is which tendencies are becoming dominant, what drives them and what choices might alter their direction.
That is the discipline we need now: to look above the trees without pretending the various journeys towards our future are simple and straightforward. On September 11, the evidence will show whether our choices are making that future plausible and what must change today to achieve the desired future.
- Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya is Project Lead at the Indlulamithi Scenarios Trust.
- Indlulamithi SA Scenarios was launched in June 2018 to explore possible socially cohesive futures for South Africa by 2030, later extended to 2035.
- The three driving forces shaping the Indlulamithi Scenarios 2035 are low economic growth, state capacity and accountability, and internal insecurity threat.
- The scenarios include Hadeda Home (blame and paralysis), Vulture Culture (scavenging and institutional decay), and Weaver Work (cooperation to rebuild institutions).
- President Ramaphosa’s Medium-Term Development Plan 2024–2029 adopts the Weaver Work scenario as the government’s preferred path towards a “cooperation nation”.
- The Auditor-General’s 2024/25 report recorded only 39 clean audits among 257 municipalities, highlighting significant local government capacity challenges ahead of the Local Government Elections.
