Oil prices fell for a third consecutive day on Thursday as concerns over supply disruptions eased after Qatar said Iran and the U.S. had made progress in talks over the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures were 66 cents or 0.92% lower at $70.91 (R1 162) a barrel at 09:58, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 59 cents or 0.86% to $67.99 a barrel, their lowest level since February 27.
The talks made “positive progress” on matters related to the memorandum that halted the war in June, a Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson said in a post on X, though there was no sign the two sides had made headway towards a lasting peace.
‘Additional supply headwind for oil’
“Recovering oil flows through the Strait continue to weigh on prices, driven by previously stranded tankers exiting the Gulf. This additional supply is a headwind for oil for now,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
The next meeting between Iran and U.S. negotiators will take place after July 9 funeral processions for Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Qatar ministry added.
Iran is determined to win international recognition of its control over the strait and its ability to levy fees on ships entering or leaving the Gulf even if it has to do so by force, two senior Iranian sources said.
UBS cut its Brent forecasts citing the U.S.-Iran pact and the subsequent increase in oil shipping through the strait.
The bank lowered its forecasts for Brent crude prices, cutting its third quarter estimate by $25 per barrel to $80, reducing its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $10 per barrel to $80, and trimming its 2027 outlook by $10 per barrel to $75.
‘Absorb returning Middle East barrels through gradual restocking’
Analysts at HSBC expect the market “to absorb returning Middle East barrels through gradual restocking, alongside the end of IEA strategic stock releases in July”.
“As the near-term “mini-glut” fades, Brent could move back towards $80/b or higher,” the HSBC note said.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to agree to a further hike in their output targets from August when they meet on Sunday, sources said on Wednesday.
Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces struck the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Thursday.
- Oil prices fell for the third day straight as supply disruption concerns eased, following positive progress in Iran-U.S. talks over the Strait of Hormuz mediated by Qatar.
- Brent crude dropped to $70.91 per barrel and WTI to $67.99, the lowest since late February, due to improved oil flows and tankers exiting the Gulf increasing supply.
- UBS cut its Brent price forecasts for 2024-2027, citing the U.S.-Iran pact's impact on oil shipping and resulting supply increases through the Strait.
- HSBC analysts anticipate the market will absorb returning Middle East barrels through gradual restocking and end of IEA stock releases, potentially pushing Brent back towards $80 per barrel.
- OPEC+ is expected to agree on an output increase from August, while Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian oil refinery, adding geopolitical tension to the market.
Oil prices fell for a third consecutive day on
Brent futures were 66 cents or 0.92% lower at $70.91 (R1 162) a barrel at 09:58, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 59 cents or 0.86% to $67.99 a barrel, their lowest level since February 27.
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Iran is determined to win international recognition of its control over the strait and its ability to levy fees on ships entering or leaving the Gulf even if it has to do so by force, two senior Iranian sources said.
UBS cut its Brent forecasts citing the U.S.-Iran pact and the subsequent increase in oil shipping through the strait.
Analysts at HSBC expect the market "to absorb returning
"As the near-term "mini-glut" fades, Brent could move back towards $80/b or higher," the HSBC note said.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to agree to a further hike in their output targets from August when they meet on
Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces struck the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia's
