The USA military is seen as a sham. Trump cannot defeat Iran and so he will escalate to a point where he is now considering boots on the ground. This latest faux pas will yet again result in heavy casualties on the part of America, at which point the US will withdraw and Israel will take over. A sort of tag team, if you like.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will respond with devastating precision, and after a few weeks Israel will be back in the position where military help is desperately needed from the US. But this, both the war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump will yet again have to accept that they have been strategically defeated by Iran.
A return to the negotiation table, if possible, will be squarely on Iranian terms. But first they will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed just a little longer and send a clear message to Trump and his allies as to who exactly oversees the shipment route for 20% of global oil.
I suspect not only will Iran get its frozen assets back, but there will also be an agreement around a civilian nuclear program, hence the precursor for Saudi Arabia. If they can allow the Saudis, then why not the Iranians. As I say, the US and Israel find themselves in a zugzwang dilemma. In chess, this means every subsequent move you make will be a bad move and thus further deteriorating your advantage.
Meanwhile China benefits from all of this in three distinct ways.
A Middle East less dependent on America
A world more dependent on Chinese critical minerals and tech, and
A reputation for Beijing as a steady and reliable partner.
Now that the Gulf States have observed first hand that their security is not guaranteed by the US, they have to have a rethink. They saw when it mattered and they were being pounded by Iranian missiles, the priority for the US was Israel’s security as opposed to their own. And they took a battering from incoming drones and missiles. Now, we can confidently say the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States are split; on the one hand you still have some sticking with the USA, and others maintaining relations but actively also looking at finding such security arrangements from China and countries such as Pakistan. In short, US’ stranglehold on the GCC states is loosening.
China leads the way in renewable energy, and the world wants a piece of it. Governments everywhere want to build up their wind turbines, battery technology, electric vehicles, and solar power. China produces almost 91% of solar panels technology and 89% of lithium batteries technology. The more energy insecurity persists, the more the world will buy from China to offset such insecurity. In addition to this technological trend, China and its allies are increasingly trading in the Chinese currency, moving away from US dollar dominance. The trend is gradual but steady.
On the reputational front, Trump set out to effect regime change in Iran, degrade its missile program, get rid of its nuclear enrichment material, and stop its support for proxies in the region. None of these goals have been attained, instead the US now wants the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. It was open before the illegal war started. In attempting to effect these objectives, he brought the full might of the US military to bear, diverted radar systems from Asia, spending billions of dollars to do so. Trump is a joke and the clown will continue to be the jester in this war.
Meanwhile, China has not committed any resources to protect Iran, did not get involved in the Gulf States and continues buying Iranian oil. I would call that a, steady accumulation of influence, wouldn’t you.
While the US bombed countries in the Middle East, China builds relations. China is clearly in a much better position in the region. Washington bombs, Beijing builds. Who would you want as a partner? Prior to the Iran war the situation looked like this: the USA, Saudi Arabia and Russia were the oil dons of the world. But now that the US cannot guarantee the free flow of oil in our waters (oceans) and Russia can barely sell its oil due to sanctions, this world order has changed. Now, Iran, the Saudis and China are the big oil players, and this is very scary for the collective West.
• Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ
- The US military is criticized as ineffective against Iran, with escalating conflict potentially leading to heavy American casualties and eventual withdrawal, leaving Israel to take over military efforts.
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard is expected to respond forcefully, maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and pushing US and Israeli forces into strategic defeat, forcing negotiations on Iranian terms.
- China benefits from the conflict by reducing Middle East dependence on the US, expanding its dominance in critical minerals and renewable energy technology, and enhancing its reputation as a reliable partner.
- Gulf Cooperation Council states are divided, some still aligned with the US while others seek security partnerships with China and Pakistan, weakening US influence in the region.
- The shift in global energy dynamics sees Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China emerging as dominant players, diminishing US and Russian oil influence, altering the traditional world order.
A return to the negotiation table, if possible, will be squarely on Iranian terms. But first they will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed just a little longer and send a clear message to Trump and his allies as to who exactly oversees the shipment route for 20% of global oil.
I suspect not only will Iran get its frozen assets back, but there will also be an agreement around a civilian nuclear program, hence the precursor for Saudi Arabia. If they can allow the Saudis, then why not the Iranians. As I say, the US and Israel find themselves in a zugzwang dilemma. In chess, this means every subsequent move you make will be a bad move and thus further deteriorating your advantage.
Meanwhile China benefits from all of this in three distinct ways.
A
A world more dependent on Chinese critical minerals and tech, and
A reputation for
Now that the Gulf States have observed first hand that their security is not guaranteed by the US, they have to have a rethink.
China leads the way in renewable energy, and the world wants a piece of it. Governments everywhere want to build up their wind turbines, battery technology, electric vehicles, and solar power. China produces almost 91% of solar panels technology and 89% of lithium batteries technology.
On the reputational front, Trump set out to effect regime change in Iran, degrade its missile program, get rid of its nuclear enrichment material, and stop its support for proxies in the region. None of these goals have been attained, instead the US now wants the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. It was open before the illegal war started. In attempting to effect these objectives, he brought the full might of the US military to bear, diverted radar systems from Asia, spending billions of dollars to do so. Trump is a joke and the clown will continue to be the jester in this war.
Meanwhile, China has not committed any resources to protect Iran, did not get involved in the Gulf States and continues buying Iranian oil. I would call that a, steady accumulation of influence, wouldn’t you.
While the US bombed countries in the
• Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and
