Wishful thinking is not a dependable strategy in war

After almost four years of war against Russia, the Nato and the USA are experiencing what I can only describe as “internal denial”. This happens as a psychological defence mechanism where an individual unconsciously refuses to acknowledge or accept a painful truth, fact, or emotion, even when faced with overwhelming evidence. It is clear for most to see the reality on the ground, except for those forces who are losing on the ground.

 The European leaders simply cannot, or refuse to, accept that they have lost the war against Vladimir Putin. After spending literally billions of euros on this war and again a latest financial package of about €90-billion (R1.7-trillion) Kiev and Odessa are about to fall. And still, Nato and EU leaders try and convince themselves that they can still win the war.

 The only strategy now, they say, is for an internal collapse in Russia. Really? This was the war objective from the start all along, and now we come full circle, it seems. This very war was started so as to ensure that there’s an internal revolt from within Russia and thus a collapse of the entire Putin regime. Four years on, and the West tells us that such a collapse is imminent. This is a fool’s errand. The strategy has clearly failed. 


 In Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was open to all ships and countries until the US and Israel executed an illegal act of aggression against Iran, and now, after almost 50 days of war, they are trying to reopen the same Strait of Hormuz.

Again, we have come full circle. The US is clearly experiencing “internal denial”.

Donald Trump does not want to see the reality in this war and at every turn escalates it, to which the Iranians respond in equal measure.

There has been no leadership decapitation; they have not managed to curb uranium enrichment; they have not ensured internal collapse in Iran;  and they have also failed in destroying or limiting the Persian state’s missiles production. And still the US and Israel deny defeat.

 What do you call this? Strategy or total confusion on the part of the US?

Am I to believe that the brains of the CIA and Pentagon, plus the brains of Mossad combined, cannot accept the reality on the ground in both these conflicts?

They somehow keep on informing their commanders in chief that all is going well in both these wars and that with just a little more time, both Putin and Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will fall. Wishful thinking has never been  a dependable strategy in war.


 And yet, here we are. How shall these two wars end if neither losing side wants to accept defeat?

No surrender, nor declaration of defeat, means what exactly? Here’s a lesson from the Peloponnesian War, thanks to Thucydides, “the strong do as they want whilst the weak suffer what they must”.

It highlights the harsh reality that, without power or agency, the weak are at the mercy of the strong, a concept sometimes referred to as “Might is Right”. Which is precisely what Israel and the US thought of Iran: that it is in fact very weak. How the tables have turned.

 As we analyse international relations through such a lens, where power imbalances dictate outcomes regardless of justice or fairness, we see how the geopolitical tables have turned and a new world order is at hand.

 Trump, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli defence minister Israel Katz  have preyed on the weak in that region for far too long and got away with it, but it seems this time around, their internal denial will not become reality.

• Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ

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  • After nearly four years of conflict with Russia, NATO and the USA are experiencing "internal denial."
  • This denial acts as a psychological defense, where painful truths are unconsciously ignored despite clear evidence.
  • The reality of the situation on the ground is apparent to most observers.
  • Only the forces losing on the ground appear to resist accepting this reality.
  • Further details are available in the full article via the e-edition of Sunday World.
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After almost four years of war against Russia, the Nato and the USA are experiencing what I can only describe as “internal denial”. This happens as a psychological defence mechanism where an individual unconsciously refuses to acknowledge or accept a painful truth, fact, or emotion, even when faced with overwhelming evidence. It is clear for most to see the reality on the ground, except for those forces who are losing on the ground.

 The European leaders simply cannot, or refuse to, accept that they have lost the war against Vladimir Putin. After spending literally billions of euros on this war and again a latest financial package of about €90-billion (R1.7-trillion) Kiev and Odessa are about to fall. And still, Nato and EU leaders try and convince themselves that they can still win the war.

 The only strategy now, they say, is for an internal collapse in Russia. Really? This was the war objective from the start all along, and now we come full circle, it seems. This very war was started so as to ensure that there’s an internal revolt from within Russia and thus a collapse of the entire Putin regime. Four years on, and the West tells us that such a collapse is imminent. This is a fool’s errand. The strategy has clearly failed. 

 In Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was open to all ships and countries until the US and Israel executed an illegal act of aggression against Iran, and now, after almost 50 days of war, they are trying to reopen the same Strait of Hormuz.

Again, we have come full circle. The US is clearly experiencing “internal denial”.

Donald Trump does not want to see the reality in this war and at every turn escalates it, to which the Iranians respond in equal measure.

There has been no leadership decapitation; they have not managed to curb uranium enrichment; they have not ensured internal collapse in Iran;  and they have also failed in destroying or limiting the Persian state’s missiles production. And still the US and Israel deny defeat.

 What do you call this? Strategy or total confusion on the part of the US?

Am I to believe that the brains of the CIA and Pentagon, plus the brains of Mossad combined, cannot accept the reality on the ground in both these conflicts?

They somehow keep on informing their commanders in chief that all is going well in both these wars and that with just a little more time, both Putin and Iran Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will fall. Wishful thinking has never been  a dependable strategy in war.

 And yet, here we are. How shall these two wars end if neither losing side wants to accept defeat?

No surrender, nor declaration of defeat, means what exactly? Here’s a lesson from the Peloponnesian War, thanks to Thucydides, “the strong do as they want whilst the weak suffer what they must”.

It highlights the harsh reality that, without power or agency, the weak are at the mercy of the strong, a concept sometimes referred to as “Might is Right”. Which is precisely what Israel and the US thought of Iran: that it is in fact very weak. How the tables have turned.

 As we analyse international relations through such a lens, where power imbalances dictate outcomes regardless of justice or fairness, we see how the geopolitical tables have turned and a new world order is at hand.

 Trump, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli defence minister Israel Katz  have preyed on the weak in that region for far too long and got away with it, but it seems this time around, their internal denial will not become reality.

• Dr Van Heerden is a senior research fellow at the Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership at UJ

Visit SW YouTube Channel for our video content